Analysis: Cost to UK taxpayers of 1,097 migrants who arrived on small boats estimated at at least £44m in first year

A single weekend arrival of 1,097 migrants on small boats is projected to cost British taxpayers at least £44 million in the first 12 months, according to an analysis using government and think-tank data. Housing accounts for the largest share of the immediate expenditure, and longer-term liabilities for benefits, public services and possible removals could push the bill substantially higher.

The arrivals came on the first full day in office for the new home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, who has been instructed to step up government efforts to prevent small-boat crossings. Government figures cited in the analysis show the average time to reach an initial asylum decision has fallen to about 413 days in 2024, down from around 735 days in 2023, leaving many new claimants dependent on state support for more than a year.

The cost estimates combine different sources. Housing figures derive from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Home Office averages. IPPR data for 2023/24 put the average annual accommodation cost per adult migrant at about £41,000, and for those housed in hotels at roughly £145 per night, or £52,925 a year. The Home Office has reported a lower average hotel bill of about £119 per night, or £43,435 a year, and ministers have pledged measures intended to cut accommodation spending by around 21%.

Applying a demographic assumption used in the analysis — that roughly 18% of arrivals are children — the 1,097 people include an estimated 900 adults and 197 children. Using the IPPR figures, the accommodation bill for the cohort over 12 months was calculated at about £57.96 million. Using the lower Home Office average and a hypothetical 21% reduction in costs, the figure falls to roughly £35.5 million; the analysis describes the lower figure as contingent on substantial and as-yet unproven cost reductions.

Other first-year costs in the analysis include subsistence allowances, health care, legal aid, local authority grants and education. The picture uses a mix of official rates and published estimates. Migrants assigned to hotels receive meals and a modest weekly allowance, while those in shared housing receive a higher weekly payment for food and incidental spending. Applied to the full group, the resulting estimate for food and spending allowances is about £2.13 million for the first year.

Health costs draw on Institute for Fiscal Studies and National Health Service averages. The IFS estimated average NHS spending per person in 2022/23 at roughly £3,300; that implies about £3.62 million for the 1,097 arrivals over a year. The analysis also accounts for services that asylum-seekers receive without charge, including dental care and sight tests. Using NHS treatment averages, the extra dental and optical costs in the first year were estimated at about £181,000 for dental care and additional sums for sight tests and glasses, producing a total health-related cost in the range of £3.48 million to £3.62 million depending on the items included.

Legal aid payments for initial asylum applications are paid at a flat fee recently raised to £559 per case, which would amount to roughly £613,000 for 1,097 cases. The analysis notes that appeals add further costs: 52% of applications were initially rejected in the year to June, and among rejected applicants a significant share mounts appeals. Typical further legal aid fees for later-stage appeals average several hundred pounds per case, and if a proportion of the new arrivals pursue appeals the bill could rise by hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Local authorities receive an asylum-seeker grant of about £1,200 per person to cover incidental costs. The analysis applies that grant across the cohort and includes additional items that have drawn public attention in recent years, citing examples such as swimming lessons and other local authority-provided activities; the grant contribution adds roughly £1.3 million in the first year. Education costs for the estimated 197 children were calculated at an average of about £8,210 per pupil per year, adding around £1.6 million to school budgets.

Summed conservatively, those first-year items yield a headline figure of at least £44 million for the 1,097 arrivals. The analysis stresses that the figure is a floor rather than an exhaustive tally: actual spending will depend on where new arrivals are housed, how many apply for and receive benefits, whether they access local services at typical rates, and the outcomes and timing of asylum decisions and appeals.

The longer-term fiscal picture is more complex. Official acceptance rates and subsequent eligibility for welfare shape future costs. Government figures cited in the analysis show that about 48% of initial applications were accepted in the year to June; under that rate, roughly 527 of the 1,097 arrivals could be granted leave to remain after initial decisions, while about 570 could be rejected. Those granted leave would become eligible to work and to claim benefits such as housing benefit and Universal Credit, and after many years of employment could qualify for state pensions.

Research from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), drawing on Office for Budget Responsibility assumptions, has modelled much larger scenarios. Using what the CPS described as the government’s more optimistic assumptions about earnings, it calculated that 801,000 migrants granted leave to remain between now and 2030 could create a cumulative fiscal cost of about £234 billion, an average long-term fiscal effect of roughly £292,000 per person under those modelling assumptions. The analysis of the weekend arrivals applies long-run projections to this group and estimates eventual costs of about £154 million, equal to the equivalent public spending that could have funded hundreds of homes or several schools.

The analysis also notes the expense of removals. The Home Office voluntary return scheme has offered payments of about £3,000 to failed asylum-seekers who agree to leave; between 2021 and 2024 some 13,637 people accepted such payments, at a cost to the Exchequer of roughly £40.9 million in direct payments, with further administration costs contracted out to private providers.

Officials and ministers have emphasized plans to reduce crossings and to change practices that drive accommodation costs, and the new home secretary faces immediate pressure to implement policies intended to cut small-boat arrivals and reduce costs. The short-term fiscal burden outlined by the analysis underscores the immediate strain on housing, local authorities and public services, while the long-term fiscal implications will depend on asylum outcomes, labour-market integration and government policy on returns and welfare eligibility.