AO World boss warns Britain headed for recession as inflation bites and Labour policies loom

Roberts also argued that tax policy is forcing wealth creators to reconsider staying in the U.K. He said: "What I really object to is the narrative that you can just keep taxing wealthy people and wasting the money. We are driving incredible amounts of wealth out of this nation. I know many people that have left the UK. You just can’t keep gearing the tax up. What you’ve got to do is run the country efficiently, you’ve got to take the tough decisions." His comments come as business leaders fear that another round of tax increases could be announced in November’s Budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. They point to the impact of the government’s previous measures, including higher employer National Insurance, on hiring and investment. A closely watched survey published this week showed private-sector jobs have been cut for 12 months in a row, even as the private sector remains sizable.

Roberts also criticized Labour’s proposed day-one rights for new workers, arguing that such rules could deter employers from hiring. "We should be talking about job creation, not enforcing things that make business leaders think twice about recruiting people and about giving somebody a chance," he said. "If the risks associated with giving those people a chance start going up exponentially then you think twice about it. We can’t carry costs that some of our competitors are not carrying. We should be turbo-charged by our UK government, not disadvantaged." He also criticized Labour’s welfare bill, saying it has ballooned out of control and that MPs often back away from reforms when elections loom. "Why do they back out of it? Because 'I might not get elected again'," he said, accusing the party of flip-flopping and wavering on difficult decisions.

Roberts’ remarks come as other business leaders have sounded similar warnings. Last week Lord Wolfson, the Next boss, warned of years of anaemic growth and said further tax increases would undermine growth. Earlier this month, former Marks & Spencer chief Stuart Rose told reporters that Labour had pushed the economy to the edge of a crisis, and Asda chief Allan Leighton urged the Chancellor to resist tax increases. The clustering of messages from executives underscores a broader concern that high taxes and expansive regulation could hinder investment and weaken Britain’s competitiveness at a time of global economic uncertainty.

On the macro front, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week warned that Britain is set to post the highest inflation among the G7 economies this year, a development that could compound cost pressures for firms and households. In the same period, data show that the private sector’s size in the economy remains buoyant even as employment within it has contracted in recent months, highlighting the potential disconnect between broader activity and job creation. Analysts say policymakers will be under pressure to balance fiscal consolidation with growth incentives as they prepare the autumn Budget.

Taken together, the remarks from Roberts and other business leaders illuminate a persistent tension: Britain’s post-pandemic recovery faces headwinds from both elevated inflation and policy decisions that could alter the investment calculus for companies large and small. With the Budget looming, executives say the government must strike a balance between funding welfare and public services and extending incentives for growth, hiring, and productivity. For now, AO World and its peers are watching closely, advising that the wrong mix of taxes, rules, and spending could push the country toward a recession that policymakers have long warned against but now find themselves contending with in real time.