Citizens Budget Commission: MTA Lost $1 Billion to Fare Evasion, Worsening Budget Shortfall

A new report from the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) estimates the Metropolitan Transportation Authority lost about $1 billion to fare evasion last year, a shortfall the watchdog says helps explain the agency’s current budget gap and outstrips the revenue expected from congestion pricing.

The CBC projected that, if recent trends continue, fare-beating will cost the MTA roughly $900 million in the current year. The group’s estimate exceeds the MTA’s own recent figures, which place annual fare losses at between $700 million and $800 million. The report also finds that last year’s loss was roughly three times the amount recorded in 2019, the year before the coronavirus pandemic disrupted transit operations.

The CBC quantified fare evasion in several striking ways. On average during 2024, the report says, people entered the subway system without paying about 330 times per minute and boarded buses without paying about 710 times per minute. The group also calculated that roughly 10% of subway riders and 43% of bus riders did not pay fares in the latest data set it examined.

The watchdog linked the longer-term rise in evasion rates to changes in prosecutorial practice that began before the pandemic. In late 2017, the Manhattan district attorney’s office announced it would no longer prosecute most low-level fare-evasion cases, a policy the CBC said coincided with renewed increases in evasion. The MTA temporarily suspended fare collection on buses early in the pandemic in an effort to limit driver exposure to the virus, a step the CBC also said contributed to sustained changes in rider behavior.

The report noted signs of a recent decline in evasion tied to stepped-up enforcement. Arrests increased in 2024, and the CBC reported that evasion rates fell 28% for subway riders and 8% for bus riders in the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2024. The group cautioned, however, that even with those reductions the absolute level of unpaid trips remains well above pre-pandemic figures.

The CBC described several MTA initiatives that appear to reduce fare-beating at specific locations. It estimated that the presence of unarmed transit inspectors corresponded with about a 36% decline in evasion where they were deployed. Modified turnstiles designed to deter jumpers were associated with declines of roughly 60% at the stations where they were installed.

Financially, the CBC underscored the scale of the problem by comparing fare losses with projected congestion-pricing revenue. The watchdog said last year’s estimated $1 billion in lost fares is roughly double the congestion-pricing revenue projected for the current year, and that restoring fare payment levels to those seen in 2019 would produce savings large enough to offset those congestion-pricing receipts.

The report framed fare collection as both a fiscal and operational issue for the MTA. Reduced fare revenue contributes directly to the agency’s budget shortfalls, and the CBC and MTA officials have said widespread evasion can undermine perceptions of safety and order on the system.

Advocates for enforcement argue that restoring consistent fare collection requires both transit measures and a willingness by prosecutors to bring low-level cases. Critics of criminal penalties for fare evasion counter that such enforcement can disproportionately affect low-income riders and plea for expanded access to discounted or free-ride programs. The CBC noted that the MTA and the city offer several discounted and free-fare programs for qualifying riders.

The policy debate comes as city and MTA officials weigh a mix of operational changes and enforcement approaches to limit revenue losses. The MTA has expanded use of station attendants, inspectors and physical deterrents at turnstiles, and the CBC highlighted those measures as among the most effective where they have been implemented. The group stopped short of prescribing a single remedy, instead laying out the fiscal implications and noting the interplay of agency policy, public-health responses and prosecutorial discretion in shaping rider behavior.

As the MTA prepares budget proposals and the city continues to implement congestion-pricing, the CBC’s analysis adds pressure on policymakers to address fare evasion’s fiscal impact. The commission’s calculations suggest that changes in enforcement, revenue collection practices or rider subsidies could materially affect the agency’s short-term revenue outlook and long-term financial planning.