Diesel market share collapses nearly 90% in a decade as trust and policy shift demand
Auto Express analysis and industry data show diesel new-car registrations fell from 48% in 2015 to 6% in 2024, with forecasts of just 2% by 2028
New-car registrations for diesel vehicles have fallen sharply over the past decade, driven by fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal, shifting tax incentives and the rise of hybrid and electric alternatives, an industry analysis shows.
Auto Express found diesel accounted for 48% of new-car registrations in 2015 but just 6% in 2024, a decline of about 87%. The publication and associated survey, commissioned with online retailer Carwow, identified damaged consumer trust after the so-called "Dieselgate" scandal as a major factor; 43% of drivers surveyed said the episode had harmed their confidence in the industry and discouraged them from buying diesel again.
Industry observers and analysts point to a combination of reputation, regulatory and commercial pressures reshaping the market. Changes to vehicle-excise duty and company-car taxation that once favoured diesel have been reversed or replaced by incentives that encourage electrification. The UK government's planned ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 also tightens the policy framework against internal-combustion vehicles.
Paul Barker, editor of Auto Express, said diesel's decline reflected both shifting incentives and technological progress in alternatives. "Once the default choice for company cars thanks to favourable tax breaks, diesels have now been overtaken by EVs, with even stronger incentives encouraging fleets to go electric," he said. "This, combined with increasing cost, improvements in hybrid tech and the looming 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel sales, mean forecasts suggest diesels will make up just two per cent of the market—one in 50 cars—by 2028."
The fall in market share has been accompanied by a reduction in diesel model availability. A decade ago, about 240 diesel models were offered; the number has fallen to roughly 91. Despite the retreat, diesel powertrains remain available across vehicle segments, including compact models such as the Volkswagen Golf and larger premium SUVs such as the Land Rover Defender. Some drivers continue to prefer diesel for fuel economy, long range between refuelling and towing capacity.
Used-diesel values have remained relatively robust even as new sales decline. Cox Automotive data cited by industry outlets show diesel cars retain about 51% of their original price after two to four years, comparable to hybrids at 53% and petrol at 58% and substantially higher than electric vehicles at 36% and plug-in hybrids at 46%. Analysts say tighter availability of new diesel models is supporting secondhand prices.
Market-share figures published alongside the Auto Express analysis show a steady downward trajectory: 2015 — 48%; 2016 — 48%; 2017 — 42%; 2018 — 32%; 2019 — 27%; 2020 — 20%; 2021 — 14%; 2022 — 10%; 2023 — 7%; 2024 — 6%. Forecasts in the analysis project 5% in 2025 and 2026, 3% in 2027 and 2% by 2028.
Regulatory measures at local and national levels are expected to accelerate change for remaining diesel owners. Expansion of low-emission zones, changes to vehicle-excise duty bands and restrictions on older diesel models entering certain city centres could further reduce the attractiveness of diesel for some buyers and fleets, industry figures said.
While residual demand for used diesels and continued availability in particular applications mean the fuel type is not disappearing immediately, industry commentary and market indicators point to a long-term contraction of diesel’s share of the new-car market as electrified vehicles take a larger role.