Diesel market share plunges nearly 90% in a decade after 'Dieselgate', analysis finds
Auto Express data shows diesel fell from 48% of new-car registrations in 2015 to 6% in 2024, with forecasts projecting just 2% by 2028.
New registrations of diesel cars have collapsed over the past decade, dropping by roughly 87 percent, with diesel accounting for just 6 percent of new cars in 2024 compared with 48 percent in 2015, according to an analysis by Auto Express.
The steep decline follows the Volkswagen emissions scandal, changes in tax and regulatory incentives and the rapid rise of hybrids and battery electric vehicles. Auto Express projects diesel could account for as little as 2 percent of new registrations by 2028.
Auto Express and Carwow commissioned a survey in which 43 percent of drivers said the emissions scandal, often referred to as "Dieselgate," damaged their trust in the industry and deterred them from buying diesel vehicles. The scandal, which investigators say involved Volkswagen installing technology to manipulate emissions testing between about 2008 and 2015, is cited by analysts as a turning point for public confidence in diesel.
Industry observers also point to policy changes that once favoured diesel. In the mid-2010s, lower vehicle excise duty rates linked to CO2 emissions made diesel the default choice for many company and fleet buyers. Those incentives have shifted toward electrified options, and governments in multiple markets have signalled or legislated bans on new petrol and diesel sales from the mid-2030s, accelerating fleet electrification.
Paul Barker, editor of Auto Express, said an evolving regulatory and tax environment, higher running costs, improvements in hybrid technology and the looming 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel sales have combined to hasten diesel's decline. "Diesel has gone from dominating the new-car market to near extinction in just a decade — a remarkable fall from grace," he said. "While sales are dwindling, strong used values show there's still demand, but the writing is clearly on the wall."
The range of diesel choices has narrowed alongside sales. Dealers reported about 240 diesel models on sale a decade ago; that number has fallen to about 91 models today, although diesel powertrains remain available across size segments from small cars such as the Volkswagen Golf to larger SUVs including the Land Rover Defender.
Used-diesel values have held up relatively strongly as supply of near-new examples tightens. Data from Cox Automotive cited by Auto Express showed diesel cars retain about 51 percent of their original price after two to four years, roughly on par with hybrids at 53 percent and ahead of battery electric vehicles, which retained about 36 percent. Petrol models retained about 58 percent and plug-in hybrids about 46 percent.
Commercial and long-distance drivers continue to cite diesel's advantages in fuel economy, range and towing capacity. Those use cases, and a segment of brand-loyal buyers, account for much of the remaining market, industry analysts said.
Forecasts included in the Auto Express analysis chart a steady fall in diesel share from 7 percent in 2023 to 6 percent in 2024, with projected declines to 5 percent in 2025 and 2026, 3 percent in 2027 and 2 percent in 2028. Analysts warn that the decline could be faster if cities expand low-emission zones, if vehicle excise duty bands continue to penalise higher-emitting cars, or if further restrictions on older diesel models are introduced.
The shift has broader implications for manufacturers, dealers and the used-car market. Lower volumes of new diesel models reduce choice for buyers who favour the fuel type and can push residual values higher for remaining stock. For manufacturers, the shrinking diesel market changes product planning and the allocation of powertrain investment toward electrified technologies.
Regulatory timelines and price competitiveness of electrified vehicles will shape how quickly diesel fades from the market. For now, diesel remains a diminishing but still present option for drivers whose mileage patterns and vehicle requirements favour the internal combustion engine.
Reports cited: Auto Express analysis, an Auto Express/Carwow survey, and residual-value data from Cox Automotive.