Florida four major metros shift to buyer's market as inventory swells

Florida has moved from a pandemic-era seller’s climate to a broad buyer’s market across its four largest metros, a reversal that underscores how quickly housing conditions can shift. The four major Florida markets — Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tampa — are now characterized by higher inventories and longer selling times, according to recent market data.

In a buyer’s market, supply outstrips demand, giving buyers leverage to negotiate prices, request concessions and take more time to choose a property. The core metric used to gauge the balance is months of supply, which estimates how long it would take to sell all homes on the market at the current pace if no new listings appeared. A six-month or longer supply typically signals a buyer’s market. Florida accounts for roughly 167,000 active listings, about 15 percent of national inventory, even though the state makes up only about 6.7 percent of the U.S. population. Florida’s inventory surge also stands out historically: in February 2023, the state recorded the steepest year-over-year inventory growth in the country, up 143 percent, compared with a 109 percent rise in Texas and a 67 percent gain nationwide.

Across the five metros analyzed in June, pricing and demand patterns reflect a broad shift. The group of seven U.S. metros with at least six months of supply includes Miami, Austin, Orlando, New York City, Jacksonville, Tampa and Riverside, California. Among them, Miami leads with a near-10-month supply, indicating a substantial buildup of inventory relative to buyers. In June, Miami’s median home price stood around $510,000, down about 4.7 percent from the same time a year earlier. Inventory in the city rose about 35 percent year over year, and homes lingered on the market roughly 15 days longer than in the prior year.

Orlando, a longtime hotspot for new development and tourism-driven demand, ranked third on the same list with a 6.9-month supply. The city’s median listing price in June was about $429,473, down roughly 3.4 percent year over year, and Orlando has been operating as a buyer’s market since January. Other metros on the list include Austin (7.7 months), New York City (6.7 months), Jacksonville (6.3 months), Tampa (6.3 months) and Riverside (6.1 months).

For Florida, the turn to a buyer’s market comes amid a broader cooling in a state that had been at the center of a nationwide housing surge. While a buyer’s market can be a sign of softening demand, it also raises concerns about affordability, rising insurance costs and economic uncertainty. CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp has warned that further price deceleration could be ahead, noting that a cold winter, large natural disasters, and weakening consumer sentiment are dampening demand and tempering price growth. The shift, while favorable to buyers in the near term, highlights a potential slowdown in the broader economy if inventory remains elevated and buyers remain cautious.