Jamie Dimon warns US economy 'is weakening' after large jobs revision

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy "is weakening" after government data showed far fewer jobs were added over the past year than previously reported, comments that underscore rising concern among bank and economic leaders about the labor market and growth prospects.

New federal figures released this week revised the number of jobs added in the year through March downward by about 911,000, a reduction that Dimon said amounts to roughly 76,000 fewer jobs per month. "I think the economy is weakening," he told CNBC, adding that he did not know "whether it's on the way to recession or just weakening." Dimon also said he expects the Federal Reserve will "probably" lower interest rates, but doubted any cut would be "consequential to the economy."

The jobs revision follows other signs of strain in the labor market. Layoffs have accelerated, with reported cuts up about 140% from a year earlier, and some private-sector economists now characterize the United States as experiencing a "labor recession." Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider that the downward revisions and rising layoffs increase the risk of a broader economic downturn. "If businesses start laying [people] off, then I think this will not just be a jobs recession, it will be an overall economic downturn," he said, adding that the economy is "clinging tightly to the lip of the cliff." Zandi warned that lowering borrowing costs alone may not prevent a recession because much of the benefit of anticipated rate cuts has already been priced into markets.

Dimon's remarks came as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that a cut to the central bank's benchmark rate could come as soon as the Fed's next meeting, comments that markets interpreted as shifting policy toward easing. Economists and market participants note a mixed set of signals: consumer spending has softened in some areas, while many corporations continue to report robust profits. That divergence has complicated calls about whether the economy will fall into recession.

Moody's Analytics data cited by Zandi show uneven regional performance, with states comprising nearly a third of national GDP — including Virginia, Connecticut and Delaware — identified as in or at high risk of recession. Another third of states, including Hawaii, New York and California, are holding steady, while the remaining third are still growing, according to the analysis.

Investors and policy makers are watching several indicators closely: the pace of job creation after revisions are incorporated into official tallies, trends in layoffs and unemployment claims, consumer spending patterns, and how quickly and how far the Fed moves on interest rates. Wall Street pays particular attention to comments from major bank executives like Dimon because they can reflect both the lending sector's view of credit conditions and sentiment about corporate activity.

Labor-market weakness could complicate the Fed's path. A material slowdown in hiring and a sustained rise in layoffs would likely weigh on consumer income and spending, increasing the risk that weaker labor conditions spill over into broader economic activity. Conversely, some forecasters note that corporate balance sheets and profit margins remain strong in parts of the economy, which could moderate a downturn.

For now, market participants and economists said they will be monitoring upcoming payroll and employment reports, along with monthly revisions, for clearer evidence of whether the downward adjustment to job counts represents a temporary data correction or the start of a more persistent slowdown. JPMorgan, under Dimon's long tenure, remains one of the largest lenders and a prominent voice in financial markets; its chief executive's assessment adds to a chorus of caution as policymakers and investors reassess the outlook amid evolving labor data.