JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Says U.S. Economy ‘Is Weakening’ After Nearly 1 Million-Job Revision

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Tuesday that the U.S. economy “is weakening” after the Labor Department sharply revised downward its jobs figures, removing 911,000 positions from initial nonfarm payroll estimates for the year ending March 2025.

Speaking at an event to mark the opening of the bank’s new $3 billion Manhattan headquarters, Dimon said the size of the Bureau of Labor Statistics revision indicated stuttering growth and added that he was uncertain whether the economy was heading into a recession or merely cooling. “I think the economy is weakening,” he said. “Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

Dimon pointed to a mix of forces in the economy, citing weakening consumer spending alongside continued strong corporate profits. He also said the Federal Reserve would “probably” reduce its key interest rate when policymakers meet later this month, a view that would align with efforts by central bankers to respond to cooling labor-market signals.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision followed earlier reports this summer that showed sharply reduced payroll gains. July’s employment increase was reported at 73,000 jobs, and the bureau later said the economy added just 22,000 jobs in August. The smaller-than-expected monthly gains prompted sharp scrutiny of the agency and the accuracy of its seasonal adjustments and sampling, heightening discussion among policymakers and business leaders about the health of the labor market.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the revision painted “a much weaker portrait of the job market than initially thought.” Guatieri added that while the revision “doesn’t say much about what has happened since March, it suggests the labor market had less momentum heading into the trade war. And, recent data suggest the market has downshifted further.”

The personnel turmoil followed the release of the softer jobs data: figures released earlier this summer prompted President Donald Trump to fire Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer, alleging the agency’s numbers had been manipulated for political purposes. The BLS has defended its methodology while noting that substantial revisions to benchmark data occasionally occur when comprehensive annual information becomes available.

The weaker payroll revisions stand in contrast to other official measures of economic activity. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported at the end of last month that gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025, a rebound from a 0.5% decline in the first quarter. Policymakers and analysts have pointed to this divergence as evidence that headline output can expand even as the labor market cools, a pattern that can complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus.

Market and business reactions have reflected the mixed signals. Corporate profitability has remained relatively strong, supporting equities and corporate investment in some sectors, while households and retailers have shown signs of softer spending, which can erode employment gains over time. Analysts say that the timing and magnitude of any Fed rate cut will depend on a broader set of indicators in addition to revised payroll data, including inflation metrics, consumer spending trends and incoming monthly labor reports.

Dimon’s remarks underscored the uncertainty confronting corporate leaders and policymakers as they interpret revised historical data and monitor current economic activity. The combination of a large historical payroll revision, tepid recent job gains and contrasting GDP growth figures has left forecasts for employment and growth more uncertain heading into the coming monetary-policy deliberations.