London Tube strike threatens hundreds of pounds a day in losses for central London businesses

A five-day Tube strike that began Sunday is set to hit central London businesses and commuters, with some shop and cafe owners reporting losses of hundreds of pounds a day and economists warning of broader economic damage.

Prasanna Callaghan, owner of Crumpets Cafe in Buckingham Gate, said the cafe would lose about £600 to £700 a day during the strike. "One day might be bearable but it will be impossible to recuperate that total cost," he said, echoing concerns from many small firms that rely on commuter footfall and tourist trade.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimated the strikes could impose a direct economic cost of about £230 million, reflecting the loss of roughly 700,000 working days across both Transport for London staff and the wider commuter base. The consultancy said the true economic hit was likely to be significantly higher once indirect effects such as reduced spending and road congestion were taken into account.

The Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT) is staging the rolling action in a dispute over pay and working conditions. Union leaders have raised concerns about fatigue management tied to early and late shifts and have asked for a reduction to a 32-hour working week. The RMT said members were not striking to damage small businesses or the public, and blamed the action on what it called the "intransigent approach of TfL management."

The knock-on impact is expected to span sectors. The CEBR cited reduced productivity as staff struggle to arrive at offices or turn up late, weaker consumer spending at shops and restaurants and additional delays from congestion on London roads.

Sarah King, London development manager at the Federation of Small Businesses, said Tube strikes would cause "significant disruption for London's small businesses, many of which rely on footfall and staff mobility to stay afloat." She urged parties to work toward a swift, constructive resolution to protect the local economy.

Independent operators also described tactical responses to cushion the blow. Shaun Bates, head of marketing at Mildred's, a vegan restaurant in Soho, said bookings could fall by double digits over the week and the venue was offering gift cards to encourage customers to visit. "As a business, strikes do hurt, but we understand why they happen," he said, adding the restaurant would focus on loyalty and thanking guests who were able to attend.

Claire Mann, chief operating officer at Transport for London, urged the RMT to suspend the action and put the pay offer to members. In a statement issued before the strike began, Mann said TfL's pay deal was in line with other offers accepted by the RMT across the rail industry and described a reduction in the contractual 35-hour week as "neither practical nor affordable." TfL said it welcomed further engagement about managing fatigue across the network.

Economists and business groups warned that recurring or prolonged strikes could deepen the hit to London's economy by depressing tourism and deterring in-person business activity that fuels retail and hospitality sectors. The CEBR's figures focus on direct output losses, but the consultancy and small-business representatives said indirect costs — such as lost future bookings, disrupted supply chains and slower client meetings — would add to the burden.

With the strike scheduled to continue through Thursday, businesses, commuters and TfL officials said attention would be on whether union leaders and management could reopen talks and reach a settlement that addresses pay and working conditions while limiting disruption to London's economy.