Michelob Ultra tops U.S. beer sales, dethroning Modelo Especial, Circana data show

Michelob Ultra has overtaken Modelo Especial as the nation’s best-selling beer for the 52 weeks ended Sept. 14, according to Circana data cited by Anheuser-Busch InBev. The light, lager-style beer also led sales in bars and restaurants over the past year, according to NielsenIQ data.

The shift marks a rebound for AB InBev after a year of turbulence tied to Bud Light’s controversy and the backlash that followed its collaboration with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney. The company has faced calls for boycotts and softer volumes in some channels as a result. A former Anheuser-Busch executive said the partnership lacked authenticity, a factor often cited by observers in evaluating the campaign’s impact.

Modelo Especial rose to the top in 2023 after Bud Light’s decline, and Constellation Brands has since struggled with a sales slump blamed on weaker demand among Hispanic customers, who account for roughly half of its beer business. Analysts note that broader economic concerns, including higher food prices and a weak job market, have weighed on purchases in consumer-packaged goods categories that include beer. The company’s leadership has stressed that social and demographic shifts can influence beer category dynamics, particularly in gatherings where beer is a common choice.

Constellation’s challenges have been compounded by external pressures such as tariffs on aluminum and Mexican imports, which have raised costs for brewers with extensive import and packaging needs. In response, Constellation lowered its full-year forecast to a 2% to 4% drop in net beer sales, from earlier expectations of flat sales to a modest rise. Investors have reflected the sector’s volatility: AB InBev shares have risen about 17% so far this year, while Constellation’s stock has fallen roughly 40%.

The latest rankings underscore the ongoing churn in the U.S. beer market, where leadership can shift as brands contend with supply-cost pressures, changing consumer preferences, and evolving perceptions in key channels such as bars, restaurants, and supermarkets. Industry observers caution that the top spot for any single brand can be episodic, tied to macroeconomic conditions, promotional activity, and the effectiveness of brand messaging across retailers.