NYC on track to deliver 50,000 new homes by year’s end as tax-incentive window drives surge
Six-month housing completions exceed prior years, fueling optimism that supply can ease rents while underscoring uncertainty about sustaining the pace after tax-breaks expire
New York City is on pace to complete more than 50,000 new housing units by the end of 2025, a milestone that would align with Mayor Eric Adams’ long-term housing goal of 500,000 units over the next decade. Data released by the Department of City Planning show developers finished construction on 25,674 residential units in the first six months of 2025 and filed plans for nearly 12,000 more, a level that would far surpass the city’s planning totals in 2023 and 2024. If this pace holds, the city could finish the year with more than 50,000 completions, well above last year’s tally of just over 30,000—the highest annual figure since 1965.
These homes are expected to meaningfully ease rental costs and expand the city’s housing stock, but analysts caution that sustaining this level of production will be challenging without the preexisting incentives that spurred a wave of projects in recent years. “These homes will make a meaningful difference in bringing down costs and addressing our city’s housing crisis. But we know there’s more work to be done,” Dan Garodnick, director of the Department of City Planning, told Crain’s in a statement. The surge in completions is linked to a pre-2022 rush to break ground before the expiration of the 421-a tax exemption, a longstanding incentive that boosted affordable-housing construction.
Brooklyn led all boroughs in new housing completions, finishing roughly 12,000 units, followed by Queens with about 6,500, the Bronx with 4,600, Manhattan with 2,600, and Staten Island with 300. With many projects now online, the question becomes whether the city can sustain the pace without similar incentives in place.
New permit activity, while still below completions, has risen to just under 12,000 citywide—an improvement over the first halves of 2023 and 2024, which each posted fewer than 10,000 filings. Manhattan led permit activity with about 4,400 applications, the majority of which were for building alterations rather than ground-up construction. The pattern underscores a continued interest in converting existing office stock into housing—a strategy cities have increasingly embraced in the post-pandemic era.
“Right now, the track is not continuing at 50,000 a year moving forward,” said Andrew Fine, policy director at Open New York, a pro-housing advocacy group. “And we have to keep on improving our policies to get there.” Industry participants have voiced skepticism about what will replace the 421-a tax break, known as 485-x, which has failed to draw the same level of developer interest since its expiration. Some hope policy tools like City of Yes zoning reforms and the 467-m tax incentive for office-to-residential conversions can help bridge the gap, but advocates warn that stronger financial and regulatory support will be necessary to sustain a higher level of construction.
The current boom is propelled, in large part, by projects started before the 421-a expiration in 2022. That tailwind has begun to fade, making the city’s longer-term supply push contingent on policy choices that come with new administration cycles and market conditions. While the six-month totals illustrate what is possible under favorable incentives and market demand, analysts cautioned that a repeat performance in coming years is far from guaranteed.
Still, supporters contend that increasing the housing stock remains essential to moderating rents and expanding options for New Yorkers. The city’s administration has repeatedly tied housing production to broader economic resilience and affordability goals, arguing that a steady supply of units helps to stabilize costs even as demand remains elevated. The current data provide a clear signal that the market responded to incentives and timing, but the path forward will depend on whether policymakers can translate that response into a durable framework that supports ongoing construction without the old tax breaks.
The Department of City Planning has signaled continued efforts to streamline approvals and encourage conversions where feasible, while advocates press for targeted subsidies and stronger protections to ensure that new units reach renters and households in need. As developers weigh new projects against financing costs, permitting timelines, and regulatory hurdles, the city faces a pivotal test: can it maintain a higher level of production long enough to have a lasting impact on rents and housing access, or will the current surge taper as incentives wane? The answer may shape the city’s market dynamics for years to come and influence how other large metro areas approach housing policy in a post-pandemic economy.