Oakland’s 94612 ZIP code becomes one of the weakest real estate markets in the United States
In Uptown and downtown Oakland, condo-heavy pricing has slumped as prices fall and fees rise, while other neighborhoods show a different pace.
A ZIP code in Oakland has emerged as one of the weakest housing markets in the United States. Zillow data show 94612 has fallen about 30% in value since January 2020, slipping from roughly $796,000 to about $558,000 in August 2025. The trend is most visible in lakefront and urban condo listings, where buyers are scarce and sellers must compete more aggressively. A two-bedroom, two-bathroom, 1,349-square-foot condo with a lake view was first listed in June for $850,000 and has since been reduced to $749,000 after three months. A similar post-modern condo listed in May has shed $76,000, dropping from $675,000 to $599,000. A lakeside home on the market for four months was lowered by $74,000, from $689,000 to $615,000. Before the pandemic, properties in this ZIP code tended to sell quickly; now the market is characterized by longer timelines and meaningful price cuts.
The 94612 ZIP code straddles the Uptown and downtown neighborhoods and has posted the largest decline in the West among the 10,000 largest ZIP codes. While national home-price gains have cooled, values in many major markets remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. In this corner of Oakland, however, the pullback has been pronounced and persistent, prompting sellers to recalibrate price expectations in a bid to attract buyers.
Industry officials say the weakness is tied to a mix of structural factors in the ZIP code and broader market dynamics. A large share of 94612 inventory consists of condos rather than single-family homes, and condo markets have faced higher costs and tighter lending conditions in recent years. Lisa Cartolano, Compass Sales Manager in Oakland, said the condo market is notably softer than the single-family market for several reasons. "This ZIP code is predominantly condos with very few single-family homes and speaks more to the differential we are seeing in the single-family versus condo market," she said. She noted that condo associations have faced rising maintenance and insurance costs, which in turn push up HOA fees and can deter buyers.
In California, new legislation enacted in January requires more stringent inspections and maintenance for condominiums, a move Cartolano said has pushed HOAs to raise fees to cover repairs. Insurance has also become a concern across the region, with some insurers dropping coverage or offering less protection at higher cost, complicating lenders’ willingness to finance condo purchases. Added to that are pandemic-era habits that linger today: buyers increasingly want outdoor space, something many high-rise condos in 94612 do not offer.
The condo-weighted nature of 94612 is a key factor in its malaise, but not all of Oakland’s market moves in lockstep. Cartolano cited a contrasting example in Rockridge, an Oakland-adjacent neighborhood closer to Berkeley, where a home listing drew eight offers and sold for more than $1 million over the list price to an all-cash buyer. The broader Oakland market has long displayed a historical pricing divide, with luxury pockets holding up even as more affordable segments stall.
Market veteran Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst in Northern California for Compass, said the decline in 94612 mirrors broader trends but does not define Oakland as a whole. He noted that the city has faced a string of negative narratives that have fed a broader perception problem, much as San Francisco did during a prior drought of upbeat coverage. Still, he argued, the city has strengths that could fuel a rebound, particularly if market conditions align with improving demand from affluent buyers.
"Oakland certainly has problems to resolve, but I’m confident that it will rebound as it always has in the past — as San Francisco is doing now," Carlisle said.
Defensive caution is warranted, however. The drop in 94612 comes amid a backdrop of mixed signals for Oakland’s real estate market. The city’s efforts to reduce crime and stabilize neighborhoods have coincided with improvements in crime data for the first half of 2025, though officials acknowledge the path to broad-based improvement remains incremental. Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee described the trend as progress, saying, "Our work is far from done, but we’re going to keep building on this progress with the same comprehensive approach that got us here."
Analysts say the Oakland story is not monolithic. While the 94612 corridor faces an especially challenging stretch, other parts of the city continue to attract buyers with different economics, amenities, and housing stock. As buyers reassess affordability and lenders adjust to ongoing regulatory and insurance shifts, some segments may finally find footing if interest rates ease and inventory tightens in the right places.
For now, the 94612 experience serves as a reminder that even in a market where headlines emphasize resilience, local markets can diverge sharply. Experts caution against extrapolating the 94612 story to Oakland as a whole, emphasizing that the city’s housing market is a mosaic of neighborhoods with distinct demand dynamics, price trajectories, and development patterns. In the near term, buyers may still step back or proceed with caution, but the long arc of Oakland’s market remains tied to macroeconomic conditions, policy shifts, and the city’s ongoing efforts to address safety, quality of life, and its reputation on the national stage.