ONS admits it overestimated UK retail sales after delayed release
Statistics agency revises first‑half growth down as repeated data errors intensify scrutiny from ministers and the Bank of England
The Office for National Statistics apologised on Friday after admitting it had overestimated retail sales for the first half of 2025, revising its figures and acknowledging a delay in the July release prompted by a compilation error.
Revisions to monthly data reduced retail sales growth for the first six months of the year to 1.1% from the 1.7% previously reported. July’s figures, which were published two weeks late, showed a 0.6% increase and were described by the ONS as stronger than expected, but the agency said the delay followed identification of a mistake in how it applied seasonal adjustments.
The ONS has faced heightened scrutiny this year after earlier corrections to unemployment and inflation statistics. Officials said the latest error related to the process used to adjust monthly retail sales figures to remove regular seasonal variation, leading to a re‑compilation of recent months and the downward revision to half‑year growth.
The agency issued an apology to users of its statistics and acknowledged the impact of the errors on those who rely on timely and accurate data. Retail sales are a key short‑term indicator of consumer spending and are closely watched by policymakers, investors and businesses assessing the health of the economy.
The string of data problems has created frustration among ministers and at the Bank of England, which rely on ONS outputs when assessing economic conditions and setting policy. Officials and market participants have said accurate national statistics are essential for monetary policy decisions, fiscal planning and private‑sector forecasting.
Analysts and officials will be monitoring whether the ONS implements procedural changes to reduce the risk of further errors. The agency has previously said it is reviewing systems and quality controls after earlier mistakes in labour market and price statistics, while maintaining that most published statistics remain reliable.
July’s upward monthly movement in retail sales will be weighed against the revised earlier months when assessing consumer momentum through the summer. The ONS did not provide an exhaustive list of which months were amended beyond the summary revision to first‑half growth, but said users should refer to its revisions notice for full details.
Market participants welcomed clarity on the latest revisions but warned that repeated adjustments can complicate real‑time assessments of the economy. The ONS’s role as the UK’s central statistical authority means its outputs feed into government decision‑making, independent economic forecasting and business planning.
The ONS said it would continue to publish detailed methodological notes and to engage with data users about the recent changes. Ministers and the Bank of England have previously urged the agency to ensure robustness in its processes; the latest correction is likely to intensify calls for further review of quality assurance and governance arrangements.
The revised figures underscore the challenges of producing timely monthly statistics, particularly where complex seasonal adjustments are required. Observers said the episode is likely to prompt renewed attention to resource allocation, staff training and technical systems within the statistics agency to bolster confidence in future releases.