OPEC+ Agrees Modest October Output Rise as Saudi Pushes to Regain Market Share

OPEC+ said it would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in October, a smaller monthly increase than recent months as the group seeks to regain market share while assessing an anticipated slowdown in demand.

The agreement, reached in an online meeting of eight participating countries on Sunday, marks the start of unwinding a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd by those members, more than a year earlier than scheduled. The decision followed larger monthly increases this summer — about 555,000 bpd in August and September and roughly 411,000 bpd in June and July — as the producer alliance has steadily reversed deep cuts it imposed during the pandemic.

OPEC+ said the smaller October rise reflected an expectation of weaker demand in the northern hemisphere winter and left members with the flexibility to accelerate, pause or reverse future increases. The group scheduled a meeting of the eight participating countries for Oct. 5 to review conditions.

Analysts said the modest size of the increase was as much a signaling move as a volume decision. “The barrels may be small, but the message is big,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and a former OPEC official, noting that the group appears to be prioritizing market share even at the risk of softer prices.

Since April, OPEC+ has already fully unwound a first tranche of about 2.5 million bpd, equal to roughly 2.4% of world demand. Before Sunday’s decision the alliance still had a separate, group-wide cut of roughly 2 million bpd scheduled to remain in place through the end of 2026.

The increases this year have coincided with moves by Saudi Arabia to discipline members that exceeded output targets and with capacity expansion in the United Arab Emirates. Analysts and production data show most OPEC+ members are operating near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the principal sources of additional barrels.

Oil prices have fallen roughly 15% this year, squeezing oil companies’ profits and contributing to industry job cuts, but have held around $65 a barrel. Prices remain supported by Western sanctions on major producers such as Russia and Iran, a factor that has given OPEC+ room to increase output without triggering a price collapse.

Market participants said the true test for the group will be in the fourth quarter, when demand typically softens and the risk of a supply glut rises. OPEC+ members voted to proceed with the modest October increase despite those headwinds, signaling a strategic pivot toward recovering lost market share after years of supply discipline.

The alliance’s decision has implications for refiners, traders and national budgets that depend on oil revenue. OPEC+ ministers and officials will monitor price and inventory signals closely at the next meeting and retain the option to adjust the pace of increases in response to evolving market conditions.