Propertyology projects Sydney median house price of $3.5 million by 2045
Study says historical trends could more than double prices in two decades, leaving Sydney about 50% costlier than Brisbane
A Propertyology study released in September 2025 projects the average Sydney house will cost about $3.5 million by 2045, more than double current levels if recent historical growth rates persist.
The research, which analysed long-term house-price trends and the typical rate at which prices have grown, forecasts that Sydney’s housing market will remain markedly more expensive than other Australian capitals. Propertyology’s comparison puts Sydney roughly 50% costlier than the next-most-expensive capital, Brisbane, which the report lists with a median house price of $1.02 million.
Head of research Simon Pressley told media the study probed why Sydney has historically traded at a premium to other cities and what the long-term outlook might be if historical patterns continue. The report highlights the city’s earlier development, noting that settlement from the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788 gave Sydney a head start in urban growth relative to other Australian capitals.
The projection is generated by extrapolating historical price-growth trends rather than forecasting specific economic shocks or policy changes. That approach produces a straight-line estimate based on past movements in property values and, according to Propertyology, illustrates how persistent growth can compound over decades.
The study’s headline figure arrives amid ongoing public and political debate about housing affordability in Australia. A rise in median prices to the levels projected would widen the gap between average home values in Sydney and those in other states and could intensify scrutiny of planning, supply and infrastructure policies that affect housing markets.
Propertyology’s release did not set out specific policy prescriptions; instead, it focuses on long-run comparative dynamics across Australia's state capitals. The authors caution that projections are sensitive to the assumptions used, including the continuation of historical growth rates, and that unforeseen economic, demographic or policy developments could alter the trajectory.
The report adds to a body of research chronicling rising property values in major Australian cities and is likely to be cited in discussions about housing access, tax settings and development planning as governments and market participants assess future affordability challenges.