Redfin analysis finds Anaheim housing may never return to pre‑pandemic affordability

A Redfin analysis released this month found Anaheim is the only major California housing market unlikely to return to pre‑pandemic affordability levels, projecting that the Orange County metro’s sharp rise in home prices may be effectively irreversible even if prices remain flat for the next decade.

Using a mortgage payment‑to‑income ratio to measure affordability against July 2018 — when housing costs relative to income were more sustainable in many metros — Redfin concluded Anaheim’s home values have climbed so steeply relative to wages that a reset to 2018 conditions is “nearly impossible” within a 10‑year horizon, Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, said in an interview.

The study compared changes in home values and incomes since July 2018 across major U.S. metros and modeled when each market’s mortgage payment‑to‑income ratio would return to that benchmark if prices held steady. It found that some cities that were among the nation’s hottest markets during the pandemic have already moved back toward 2018‑era affordability or are on track to do so in the coming years.

San Francisco, for example, has seen home prices rise only about 8% since July 2018 while the national median has climbed roughly 56% in the same span, and local incomes have grown at a stronger clip — about 7.7% annually versus a 3.9% national average, Redfin reported. Those income gains, combined with relatively muted price movement, mean San Francisco has effectively returned to the mortgage payment‑to‑income conditions of mid‑2018, though that does not make it broadly affordable, Zhao said.

Oakland is projected to reach similar levels this month if prices remain steady, and other California metros are expected to take longer. Redfin’s timeline estimates Sacramento could normalize by November 2028, San Diego by February 2029 and San Jose by May 2029. Outside California, Austin, Texas, is projected to return to 2018 affordability by March 2027.

Zhao cautioned that Redfin’s projections do not factor in local property taxes or rapidly rising homeowners insurance costs in California, both of which could push the mortgage payment‑to‑income ratio higher and delay or prevent a return to 2018 conditions. “It would be nearly impossible to go back to pre‑pandemic levels, even in the next 10 years,” Zhao said, pointing to Anaheim’s exceptional price gains and the omitted cost pressures.

Even in metros that are trending back toward historical ratios, many residents may still find homeownership unattainable. “Even if and when we get back to that normal scenario, a lot of people are still going to say, ‘Well, buying a house is still out of reach for me,’ ” Zhao said.

In markets such as San Francisco, affluent newcomers with high tech salaries and signing bonuses have helped buoy demand even as overall prices stabilized. Redfin agent Ali Mafi told the company that AI firms and other tech employers are offering unusually large compensation packages that enable some buyers to purchase in a market that appears more favorable relative to 2018 than to typical local incomes.

The Redfin analysis underscores how uneven the post‑pandemic housing recovery has been across California. Policymakers, planners and community advocates have pointed to land use, zoning, construction costs and regional labor markets as factors shaping divergent outcomes, and Redfin’s model highlights the added influence of income trajectories and non‑mortgage carrying costs.

Redfin’s findings do not predict imminent price declines in Anaheim; rather, they indicate that affordability measured by mortgage payments relative to incomes is unlikely to return to mid‑2018 norms absent significant changes in prices, income growth patterns, or reductions in other housing‑related costs. That conclusion may inform local and state debates about housing supply, subsidies and financial support aimed at maintaining access to homeownership in high‑cost metros.