Report: Sydney average house price could reach $3.5 million by 2045

A new Propertyology report projects that the average house in Sydney will cost about $3.5 million by 2045, a rise that would more than double typical prices over the next 20 years.

The study, published in September 2025, based its projection on historical price trends and the typical rate at which house values have grown in Australia’s capital cities. Head of research Simon Pressley said the analysis probed why Sydney is substantially pricier than other capitals and what longer-term growth is likely to look like.

Propertyology found Sydney remains the most expensive Australian capital by a wide margin. The report compared Sydney with Brisbane, which it said had a median house price of about $1.02 million, roughly half the cost projected for Sydney in 2045. Pressley pointed to Sydney’s earlier European settlement and longer period of urban development — tracing to the arrival of the First Fleet at Botany Bay in 1788 — as one factor behind its sustained price premium.

The analysis used historical growth rates to model forward price trajectories for the major state capitals. It concluded that if past patterns continue, Sydney’s median house price could grow at a pace that results in the $3.5 million figure by mid-century. The study did not present a single deterministic path but a projection grounded in observed long-run trends.

Housing market watchers said the projection underscores persistent affordability pressures in Australia’s largest city. A median home price in the multi-million dollar range would affect first-time buyers and domestic migration patterns, analysts say, although the report itself focused on price mechanics and comparative historical development rather than policy prescriptions.

Sydney has long been among the world’s priciest housing markets and frequently ranks above other Australian capitals on measures of median prices and price-to-income ratios. Propertyology’s report adds to a series of recent studies and commentary highlighting significant price divergence between Sydney and smaller capitals and regional markets.

The implications of such long-term projections depend on numerous variables, including migration, wage growth, interest rates, housing supply and government policy. Propertyology’s analysis used historical rates as a guide, and the firm’s head of research framed the findings as an exploration of why Sydney’s housing stock has historically commanded higher prices and how that gap might evolve if historical relationships persist.

Real estate industry groups, economists and housing advocates have in recent years debated how best to address housing affordability while managing demand and supply in high-price cities. The new projection is likely to renew attention to those debates in government and industry circles, even as stakeholders weigh the uncertainties that affect long-range housing forecasts.

Propertyology’s report and commentary provide a data-driven perspective on possible future prices but stop short of predicting specific policy outcomes. The firm said its work aims to illuminate long-term trends and relative differences between capital cities, rather than to forecast short-term market movements.