RICS survey: Buyers pull back amid Budget tax rumours and rising rates, house prices likely to fall

A closely watched survey of estate agents and surveyors by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) indicates that UK house prices are likely to fall in the coming months as would‑be buyers delay decisions amid rumours of property tax changes in the Autumn Budget and as mortgage pricing hardens.

More RICS members reported house prices falling in their areas in August than those reporting rises, with particularly widespread falls recorded in East Anglia and the South West. Looking ahead, a majority of survey respondents expect prices to decline over the next three months. Over a 12‑month horizon the consensus remains for a marginal rise in values, but the reading is the most negative since December 2023.

RICS members and local agents told the survey that market activity has already slowed as potential buyers put plans on hold until the Chancellor sets out tax policy in late November. "Many selling agents are rolling out the annual excuse of the holiday season for sluggish activity, but there is a real sense that the market is cooling and unlikely to breathe signs of recovery until after the Budget," said Neil Foster, a RICS member in Hexham, Northumberland. "More pain for homeowners from the Chancellor could precipitate even weaker demand."

Other members described a similar chill. "Now that the Autumn Budget has been announced for late November and with media speculation about possible changes to stamp duty and capital gains, I can’t see the market picking up into the autumn," said James Brown, a member in Richmond, North Yorkshire. Brian John Boys, a RICS member in Bacup, Lancashire, said a further factor behind the sales slump is that "people [are] getting cold feet and pulling out at the last minute," producing breakdowns in property chains.

Mortgage pricing has also hardened in recent days. Major lenders including HSBC, Halifax, Nationwide Building Society and Santander have announced rate increases in the past week. Fixed‑rate mortgage deals are influenced by money‑market expectations for official interest rates, and markets are pricing in little or no Bank of England easing before the end of the year, with the next cut now widely expected in the spring.

The combination of tax uncertainty and higher mortgage costs is reflected across regions. RICS members reported a second consecutive month of falling buyer enquiries in August and said agreed sales fell at a sharper rate than in July. While the North West of England and Northern Ireland showed pockets of better enquiry, most regions registered weaker demand.

Local agents provided a range of on‑the‑ground observations. In Bristol, Eliana Davis said buyer confidence was low, there were more properties for sale, and transactions were subject to renegotiation and delays. In Birmingham, Andrew Clive Major Oulsnam said the market had "hardened" with fewer houses coming to market and fewer sales. In Staines, John Frost pointed to a glut of flats on the market that was exerting downward pressure on prices.

RICS members expect overall sales activity to remain broadly flat over the next 12 months, reflecting a market that may be waiting for clarity from the government and for mortgage pricing to stabilise. Housing market watchers noted that any large‑scale policy changes announced in the Budget could further influence activity and valuations.

Mortgage advisers and brokers say borrowers facing upcoming deal expiries or those with agreed purchases should start reviewing options early. Locking a rate in advance, comparing offers and consulting an independent broker are commonly recommended steps to manage cost and timing risk. For landlords and buy‑to‑let investors facing interest‑only or short‑term deals, advisers stress the importance of planning remortgages well ahead of expiry because increases in monthly costs can be pronounced.

The RICS survey, which draws on the experience of estate agents and surveyors around the country, provides an early reading of how market participants are reacting to combined fiscal and monetary uncertainty as the Autumn Budget approaches.