SpaceX IPO Buzz Grows as Wall Street Eyes Potential $1.5 Trillion Valuation

SpaceX is generating widespread Wall Street chatter about a possible initial public offering, even as the company remains in a regulatory quiet period that curtails public discussion of its plans. People familiar with the matter say the rocket maker could pursue a 2026 listing that might raise as much as $36 billion and could value the private company at about $1.5 trillion. The scale of the potential deal has drawn interest from every major Wall Street bank, with talks between SpaceX and underwriters already under way and a long vetting process expected to unfold before a final selection.

A SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen-led process is expected to determine the underwriting roster, with Elon Musk traditionally taking a back seat in the day-to-day negotiations. Banks cautioned against reading too much into the enthusiasm surrounding the possible offering; valuation hinges on market conditions, which have swung recently as investors grapple with tech stock volatility and ongoing AI-related concerns. "With this guy all bets are off," one bank representative said of Musk’s influence and management style. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.

The public markets are viewed as essential to raising the capital required for Musk’s broader goals for SpaceX, which include space exploration and potentially Mars settlement, as well as related AI initiatives. Private-market shares have indicated a base valuation near $800 billion, according to Bloomberg, underscoring the disconnect that can exist between private and public market pricing.

The prospect of a SpaceX IPO is inseparable from Musk’s broader business footprint. He owns about 42% of SpaceX and has built a fortune largely through Tesla; the company’s private valuation and Musk’s leadership have sparked speculation about the possibility of a trillion-dollar wealth milestone if SpaceX heads to the public markets. Separately, Musk’s nascent AI project, xAI, has drawn attention from investors and analysts who weigh its potential impact on SpaceX’s growth strategy; some reports have pegged xAI’s potential value around $230 billion, though such figures are provisional and depend on execution and market demand.

Musk has long balanced ambitious private ventures with high-profile public bets, including a highly scrutinized pursuit of social media platform Twitter, now rebranded as X. The IPO conversation, say people familiar with the matter, remains contingent on market timing, internal readiness, and Musk’s willingness to cede control to public investors; analysts note that a postponement could be a real possibility if conditions deteriorate or if the executive’s mood shifts.

If the offering comes to fruition, SpaceX would join a long line of blockbuster technology listings and reshape how investors view space as a commercial venture rather than a government-driven frontier. For Musk, a successful IPO could expand his access to capital for ongoing development, while potentially cementing his status as the world’s richest person at the time of market debut. Analysts caution that timing, pricing, and strategic decisions by underwriters will determine whether the listing achieves the hoped-for growth trajectory.

The broader market backdrop remains dynamic, with investors weighing macro conditions, tech sector momentum, and the regulatory environment as they assess the chance of SpaceX stepping into the public arena. If delays persist or the stock market remains volatile, Musk could opt to push back or re-evaluate the plan, a path some bankers described as plausible given the unprecedented scale and player involved. SpaceX has not publicly outlined a timeline, and observers stress that any public offering would require extensive coordination with regulators, investors, and the company’s leadership.