State pension set to rise about 4.7% from April after wages data

People receiving the state pension are likely to see an increase of about 4.7% from next April, after official wages data showed average pay growth that is expected to trigger the so-called "triple lock" uplift.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that total pay, including bonuses, rose by 4.7% for the three months to July. Under the triple lock formula — which raises the state pension each year by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or average earnings growth — that figure is expected to determine next year's increase. For many receiving the new state pension, the rise would be worth more than £500 a year.

The triple lock was introduced by the coalition government in 2011 and has been used to calculate annual increases in the state pension since then. Almost 13 million people currently receive the state pension, but not all are entitled to the full amount; entitlement depends on years of qualifying National Insurance contributions. Many pensioners also receive income from workplace or private pensions in addition to the state payment.

The ONS pay figure covers total pay including bonuses, and average earnings growth is one of the three elements considered under the triple lock each year. If inflation or the 2.5% floor had been higher than average earnings growth, that higher measure would have been applied instead.

Any confirmed rise will be applied to payments from April, the usual annual review point for state pension rates. The precise increase will be announced by the government after it finalises assessments of the relevant data. The expected 4.7% rise would represent one of the larger increases under the triple lock mechanism in recent years.

Officials and pensioner groups have previously pointed out that while the triple lock boosts incomes for many retired people, the overall effect on household finances varies depending on individuals' other sources of income and personal circumstances. The state pension remains a foundational element of retirement income for millions, and changes to its rate are watched closely by beneficiaries, advisers and policymakers.

The ONS data underpinning the likely increase is part of routine labour market reporting. The government typically confirms and publishes the exact percentage to be applied once it has considered the full set of statistics that determine which element of the triple lock — inflation, average earnings growth or the statutory 2.5% minimum — is highest for the relevant period.