State pension set to rise by more than £500 under triple lock after wages increase

The UK state pension is set to rise by more than £500 a year after average earnings growth triggered the government’s "triple lock" guarantee, officials and forecasters said.

Average total earnings rose by 4.7% between May and July, meaning wages, rather than inflation or the statutory 2.5% floor, will be used to benchmark next April’s uplift. Under that calculation the new flat-rate state pension for people reaching state pension age after April 2016 is expected to increase to £241.05 a week, or about £12,534.60 a year, a rise of £561.60 compared with current levels. The old basic state pension, for those who reached state pension age before April 2016, is expected to increase to about £184.75 a week, or £9,607 a year, up £431.60.

The triple lock, introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010, guarantees that the state pension rises each April by whichever is highest of: September’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation, average wage growth for May to July, or 2.5%. September’s inflation figure will not be published until October but is expected to be lower than average earnings, making the wages measure decisive this year.

More than 12 million people currently receive the state pension. To qualify for the full new state pension, most people need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance (NI) contributions; gaps can arise from living abroad or taking time out to care for children. Since 6 April claimants can make voluntary NI payments to fill gaps only for the previous six years. The government publishes state pension ages and forecasts so individuals can check entitlement and consider voluntary top-ups.

The rising cost of the state pension has intensified public and political debate. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said in July 2025 that the annual cost of the triple lock guarantee is set to be three times higher by the end of the decade than originally anticipated, projecting the annual cost to reach about £15.5 billion by 2030. The OBR also reported that total state pension spending has risen steadily and now equals roughly £138 billion, or about half of total government spending on benefits.

Think tanks and some economists have urged re-evaluation of the policy. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said in July 2025 that the triple lock should be considered for removal as part of a wider overhaul of pension policy to address long-term affordability. The International Longevity Centre, a separate think tank, has said the state pension age may have to rise further to keep costs sustainable and has suggested the UK could need a state pension age of 71 by 2050.

The government has faced separate controversies over winter support payments for older people. The winter fuel payment, previously available to all pensioners, was narrowed in July 2024 to those receiving pension credit or other means-tested benefits in England and Wales. That change was widely criticised. In June 2025 the government announced a U-turn: winter fuel payments will now go to around nine million pensioners in England and Wales with annual incomes of £35,000 or less, a means-tested approach the Chancellor said would target support more fairly.

Pension credit, a means-tested benefit that can top up low incomes for those above State Pension age, will also increase by the same 4.7% next year. Those eligible for pension credit may also qualify for other help, including reductions in council tax, housing benefit, assistance with heating costs and the warm home discount scheme.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reiterated the government’s intention to retain the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament, but the cost projections and calls for reform make the policy likely to remain a focal point in fiscal and social policy debates ahead of future budgets and spending reviews.