Supermarket inflation remains near 5% as chocolate, fresh meat and spreads push prices up

Grocery inflation in Britain held at 4.9% in the four weeks to Sept. 7 as shoppers faced the sharpest price rises for chocolate, fresh meat and butter or spreads, market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator said Tuesday.

The research firm’s data show supermarket prices rising faster than the country’s overall Consumer Prices Index inflation rate, which the Office for National Statistics puts at 3.8%. The 4.9% figure was slightly below August’s 5.0% and July’s 5.2%, the latter being the highest level since January 2024.

Worldpanel’s head of retail and consumer insight, Fraser McKevitt, said prices "might not be climbing quite as quickly, but they're still on the rise," and noted sustained competition between own‑label lines and brands as households remain under financial pressure. The firm reported that supermarkets’ own‑label products now account for 51.2% of all sales, up from 50.9% a year earlier.

Take‑home grocery sales across supermarkets rose 4.8% in the period compared with a year earlier. Own‑label sales grew by 5.9%, outpacing brands’ growth of 5.3%. McKevitt highlighted premium own‑label ranges as standout performers, saying sales of those goods rose 10.3%, marking six consecutive months of double‑digit increases.

While some categories showed strong inflationary pressures, others registered price falls. Worldpanel cited recent declines in prices for household paper, sugar confectionery and dog food. It also noted that brands were holding ground in categories such as toothbrushes, frozen chicken and baby toiletries.

Seasonal shopping patterns contributed to shifts in demand as families returned to work and school. In the two weeks to Sept. 7, Worldpanel found sharp rises in lunchtime staples among households with children: yogurt spending climbed 26%, sliced cooked meats rose 17% and cheddar cheese was up 24% compared with the previous fortnight. The firm said sandwiches remain common in more than half of children’s lunchboxes, while cooked poultry is becoming a more popular option.

Retailers also recorded gains on back‑to‑school clothing, where grocers outperformed the wider childrenswear market. Worldpanel put grocers’ growth in that segment at 8.4%, and said pre‑worn clothing made up 13.1% of schoolwear purchases as families sought lower‑cost options.

Among individual retailers, Tesco took the largest increase in market share over the 12 weeks to Sept. 7, rising 0.8 percentage points to 28.4% of all supermarket sales, with spending up 7.7%—its strongest rate since December 2023. Online specialist Ocado was the fastest growing retailer, with sales up 11.9%, outpacing the wider online grocery market growth of 8.2%.

Sainsbury’s saw spending through tills rise 5.4%, increasing its share to 15.1%. Lidl was the fastest growing bricks‑and‑mortar retailer with sales up 11.0%, taking its share to 8.2%, while Aldi held a 10.7% share with spending up 4.7%. Morrisons accounted for 8.4% of the market and Asda 11.8%. Take‑home sales at Iceland rose 4.7% with its share at 2.3%, Co‑op had 5.4% of the market, Waitrose’s share was 4.4% with spending up 4.3%, and Marks & Spencer’s grocery sales were 5.9% higher than a year earlier.

The findings come as industry bodies and retailers warn of further upward pressure on food prices. The Food and Drink Federation said food and drink inflation could reach 5.7% by year‑end, pointing to policy changes including increased national insurance costs and new packaging taxes; the federation linked the projections to measures announced by the Labour government. Aldi’s chief executive described pressures on shoppers as "persistent and urgent," warning of potential "ripple effects" from higher costs for business.

The government is also advancing an employment rights overhaul that Labour says will strengthen workers’ protections. Opponents estimate the proposals would raise costs for employers; Conservative commentators have suggested the measures could add about £154 in annual hiring costs per worker on top of an estimated £800 annual cost associated with the national insurance increase. Worldpanel noted grocery inflation is more than three times higher than the 1.6% level recorded in July of the previous year, shortly after the Labour government took office.

Worldpanel, formerly known as Kantar, compiled the data for the four weeks to Sept. 7, providing the latest snapshot of prices and household purchasing across Britain’s grocery market.