Trainline upgrades guidance as French rail liberalisation boosts ticket sales

Trainline PLC raised its full‑year earnings outlook and expanded a share buyback programme on Thursday after reporting stronger ticket sales in Europe, driven in part by increased competition on French routes.

Shares of the FTSE 250 ticketing group jumped nearly 10% in early trading, trading at 285.4p, after the company said it now expects adjusted earnings growth to come in at the high end of its 6%–9% guidance range and committed to an additional £150 million of buybacks over the next 12 months on top of an existing £75 million programme.

Trainline said consumer net ticket sales in the UK rose 8% year‑on‑year to £2.1 billion, reflecting "strength in leisure travel sales, commuter market recovery and the lapping of strike action in the prior year." At the same time, revenue from UK consumer operations was broadly flat at about £107 million after the company reduced its headline commission rate from 5% to 4.5% in April. The group also reported stronger demand for on‑the‑day travel, which typically generates lower revenues per ticket than longer‑distance bookings.

International consumer net ticket sales increased 2% to £594 million, with Trainline saying it targeted marketing at high‑speed European routes where carrier competition is emerging. Sales in France’s south‑east network, covering Paris, Lyon and Marseille, rose 34% in the quarter, which the company attributed to continued rail liberalisation and regional tenders that have opened routes to new operators since competitive tendering became mandatory in 2023.

Trainline Solutions, the company’s business arm that provides ticketing services to travel management companies and other clients, posted net ticket sales up 18% to £529 million and has grown into a business generating around £1 billion of sales, the group said.

Chief Executive Jody Ford said rail liberalisation in Europe was a key driver of the results, adding that the company’s role as a domestic aggregator had been reinforced by increased carrier competition in south‑east France. "At the same time, Trainline Solutions has become a £1 billion sales business as we help more clients of all sizes, from SMEs to the world's largest travel management companies, ramp up business travel sales across Europe," Ford said.

The company flagged a number of headwinds alongside the growth. It said Transport for London’s Project Oval — an expansion of the contactless payment network — had hampered some sales in the capital. Trainline also warned that recent changes to Google's search results were affecting demand from U.S. tourists.

Investors were rewarded with a larger capital return plan. If the newly announced £150 million buyback is completed in full and combined with previous programmes, Trainline said it would imply about £350 million of shares bought back and cancelled over a three‑year period.

Market analysts highlighted the strategic shift represented by the results. Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, said the company was evolving from a UK‑focused ticketing platform into "Europe's default rail aggregator," and argued that the mix of resilient domestic demand, expanding international opportunities and consistent capital returns could mean the current valuation did not fully reflect the firm's scalability.

Despite Thursday's rally, Trainline shares have fallen almost a third since the start of the year, underscoring investor caution amid volatile travel patterns and structural changes to commission rates and search referral dynamics.

Trainline’s move comes against a broader backdrop of European rail market reform. Since 2023, parts of the French regional rail market have been subject to competitive tendering, allowing regional authorities to award contracts to new operators and encouraging price and service competition. Trainline said the liberalisation trend had increased the pool of carriers and routes available to its platform, lifting its sales in affected corridors.

The company said it had benefited from operating leverage and cost‑cutting measures when assessing the upgraded outlook, and reiterated focus on growing both consumer and business channels across Europe. Analysts and investors will watch the conversion of higher ticket volumes into sustained revenue and profit growth, and the company’s execution of its enlarged buyback plan, as indicators of how well Trainline can capitalise on the changing European rail landscape.