Trump economist predicts 'massive' tax refunds, says families will save thousands

A top contender to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicted Thursday that the United States will see the largest tax-refund cycle in history next spring, with many families receiving refunds worth thousands of dollars. The remarks came from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett during an interview on Fox Business’ Varney & Co., as the Trump administration pushes for tax changes and economic policy that it says will boost take-home pay.

In the interview, Hassett asserted, "We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks." He added that President Trump had forecasting of substantial refunds and that some families could see noticeable improvements in their finances next year. Hassett cited wage data as supporting evidence, noting that the jobs report showed typical worker wages rising, a combination he framed as delivering real wage gains even as inflation remains a point of emphasis for policymakers. He said, "You saw in the jobs report that wages for the typical worker were up 3.7%. So if you’re running 3.7% wage increases at 1.6% core inflation, then real wages are growing at a rate of about two to two-and-a-half percent." He further claimed that blue‑collar workers have already benefited from nearly a $2,000 raise this year after factoring in inflation.

Trump has repeatedly tied tax policy to household cash flow, and Hassett’s comments echoed the president’s stated expectation that many families will save between $11,000 and $20,000 annually due to refunds and related tax changes. Hassett noted that the forecast reflects tax changes that may not have been reflected in early-year tax forms, saying, "We didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer. And so a lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of the year." The remarks come as the administration seeks to highlight tax policy as a driver of household finances even as broader economic sentiment remains mixed in some polls.

Hassett is a prominent name on a short list to replace Powell at the Federal Reserve, a position Trump has criticized Powell for taking a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts. Hassett’s public comments on refunds and wage dynamics come as the White House emphasizes policy changes implemented over the past year and contemplates further steps to influence consumer confidence, inflation, and job growth. Critics, meanwhile, caution that projected refunds depend on complex tax law interactions and that real-world outcomes can diverge from early projections.

The broader context for Hassett’s remarks includes the administration’s ongoing narrative about tax reform’s short- and medium-term effects on households, as well as the political calculus around the Fed chair election and the direction of U.S. monetary policy. While Hassett projected robust refunds and ongoing wage gains, economists outside the administration have warned that inflation pressures and global factors could temper wage growth and the perceived impact of tax changes. As the year advances, observers will be watching for updates on refund timing, the size of refunds families actually receive, and how these elements influence consumer spending and confidence amid a shifting economic landscape.

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