Trump trade fight with China puts U.S. soybean farmers at risk

The U.S. soybean sector faces mounting pressure as China, the industry’s largest customer for many years, has stopped purchasing U.S. beans in retaliation for tariffs and to press Washington in ongoing trade negotiations. The move has left farmers scrambling to find buyers for this year’s crop and raised questions about the sector’s long-term viability.

Caleb Ragland, a Magnolia, Kentucky farmer who leads the American Soybean Association, described the situation as a severe crisis for the industry. With harvest approaching, growers worry about market access once the crop comes off the field, as tariff-driven price pressures and competition from other suppliers squeeze margins.

Tariffs on U.S. soybeans have raised the cost of American beans relative to suppliers from Brazil and other nations, complicating farmers’ plans as talks with Beijing proceed. The dispute comes at a time when China’s duties on soybeans have reached about 34% and the once-dominant buyer has scaled back purchases. The broader market backdrop remains volatile as Washington and Beijing have held four rounds of trade talks between May and September, with no clear progress on soybeans.

Last year, U.S. soybean exports totaled roughly $24.5 billion, with China accounting for more than $12.5 billion of that amount. The European Union was the next-largest market at about $2.45 billion. Through May of this year, China had not bought U.S. beans, a swing that has hit farmers’ incomes and sharpened calls for a durable solution beyond short-term relief.

Farmers and policymakers are pressing for a long-term agreement that would restore stable access to Chinese markets. President Trump has indicated he may redirect some tariff revenues to aid farmers during a transition period, a move many growers view as a stopgap rather than a fix. Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said the industry has to diversify but that replacing China overnight is not feasible. He noted that diversification efforts include seeking markets in Japan and Indonesia and that Taiwan has pledged to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of soybeans, corn, wheat and beef over the next four years.

The shift away from China has been reinforced by the growth of soybean imports from Brazil, which last year accounted for more than 70% of China’s purchases, while the U.S. share slipped to about 21%, according to World Bank data cited by industry observers. That realignment has pushed U.S. farmers to broaden domestic uses for soybeans, such as increasing biodiesel production and grinding beans into meal and oil for animal feed. The United Soybean Board is funding research into feeding dairy cows and hogs with soy products, part of an effort to build domestic demand as export markets evolve.

Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said patience among farmers is wearing thin as the time window for a resolution narrows. Yet the broader base of supporters remains, with Ragland noting that soybean farmers have generally backed President Trump and are calling for him to secure lasting trade agreements that allow them to sell crops and plan for future generations. He emphasized that, beyond relief payments, farmers want reliable markets and a predictable price environment.

Experts caution that replacing a single, massive customer like China will take time and that a robust, multi-market strategy is essential. Sutter recently traveled to Japan and Indonesia to explore new outlets, while Taiwan’s pledge signals a potential counterbalance to China’s demand. Still, analysts stress that China’s size and its integrated agricultural system mean any replacement will be gradual, not instantaneous.

For now, the immediate focus is harvest readiness and price signals that will determine planting decisions for next year. The market implications extend beyond soybeans, affecting related sectors such as sorghum, corn and cotton, which have also faced tariff pressures. With talks continuing and the possibility of temporary aid on the table, farmers are watching closely how policy responses translate into real-world market stability in the coming months.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, reiterated that the essence of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win, underscoring Beijing’s willingness to engage but urging the United States to work with Beijing toward a deal. The evolving stance by both sides continues to shape farmer expectations as harvest looms and the market recalibrates around a growing list of potential buyers in Asia and beyond.

As farmers wait for a resolution, industry observers say the path to durable recovery will require a combination of renewed access to Chinese markets, expansion into new buyers, and policies that foster price stability. In Magnolia and across the Midwest and Plains, growers are bracing for a mixed season—one where the strength of the crop is matched by the difficulty of selling it at predictable prices until a comprehensive trade agreement or other market-restoring measures take hold.