Trump's $100,000 visa fee for skilled workers risks US growth, analysts warn

A new $100,000 fee for skilled worker visas introduced by President Donald Trump will weigh on economic growth and could push the United States toward recession, analysts warned. The White House confirmed over the weekend that the U.S. would immediately start charging the levy every time a company requests to hire a skilled worker from another country via the H-1B visa. The move could have a serious impact on the technology sector, which relies heavily on importing talent from overseas.

The policy comes as investment bank Berenberg slashed its forecasts for U.S. growth this year, cutting the projection from 2% to 1.5%. Economist Atakan Bakiskan described the act as a "policy mistake" and criticized what he called further "anti-growth policymaking" from the Trump administration. He noted that deportation efforts, attempts to strip work permits from existing employees, and a hostile environment for foreign workers have already slowed labor force growth toward flat levels. With the new H-1B policy, he said, the labor force is more likely to shrink than expand going forward, and the economy would increasingly depend on productivity gains.

"The future of economic growth now depends almost exclusively on productivity gains," Bakiskan warned. He cautioned that by making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent, and by encouraging some international students to leave the United States after graduation, the brain drain could weigh heavily on productivity. He asserted that even a 1.5% growth path could look optimistic in light of eroding trust in institutions, a loss of human capital, tariffs, chronic policy uncertainty, and fiscal constraints that could raise the tail risk of a financial crisis in the U.S. "In the long run, they may set a path for an even weaker dollar and higher long-term yields," he added. "Can the economy still grow with no job creation? Yes, but at a slower rate and with a higher risk of stagnation or recession."

Britain could cut visa fees for skilled workers, too. The Financial Times reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is weighing the abolition of some visa fees for a fast-track route to settlement designed to attract talent in science, engineering, humanities, medicine, digital technology, or arts and culture. Britain’s Global Talent visa, introduced by Boris Johnson in 2020, currently costs £766 to apply, with partners and children paying the same fee. There is also an annual health surcharge of £1,035. In the year to June 2023, 3,901 people were granted the visa, according to the FT, a 73% rise from the prior year.

Analysts said the development could complicate decisions for technology and financial services firms with offshore teams and heavy reliance on skilled workers. Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, called the U.S. policy move potentially "tricky" for tech and finance companies and suggested it could weigh on share prices later on, noting that Amazon alone employs about 14,000 people on H-1Bs. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, added that U.S. futures pointed to a softer open as markets awaited fallout from Trump’s immigration crackdown by raising the H-1B application fee to $100,000.

The broader market reaction underscores the sensitivity of a high-skilled labor market to policy shifts. Investor attention remains focused on the financing of growth in technology, research and development channels, and human capital flows that underpin innovation-led expansion. While the immediate policy effect is a direct cost hurdle for firms, the longer-term implications could extend to educational enrollment, startup formation, and competitiveness in a global talent race.

The White House and its supporters say tighter controls on foreign labor are meant to shift the U.S. economy toward higher domestic productivity and to reduce perceived foreign dependence. Critics, however, argue the barriers could slow innovation, deter international students and specialists, and erode confidence in institutions that rely on global talent. The policy comes amid ongoing debates about immigration, labor policy, and fiscal strategy, with analysts cautioning that the full effects will unfold over multiple quarters and could interact with other global macro trends.

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