UK retail sales get summer boost as ONS revises prior months; non-store spending at highest since 2022

Retail sales volumes in the UK rose more than expected in July as warmer weather and the Women’s Euros boosted consumer spending, the Office for National Statistics said, but revisions to previous months’ figures left annual growth weaker than initially reported.

The ONS reported a 0.6% increase in retail sales volumes for July, ahead of market forecasts of around 0.2%. On an annual basis, growth was 1.1% after the statistics agency revised earlier data and adjusted seasonal effects.

The ONS said its annual review identified issues with seasonal adjustment that prompted revisions to past monthly figures. June’s previously reported 0.9% monthly rise was revised down to 0.3%, producing a smoother but slower-looking growth profile across the summer months.

Non-store retailers, a category dominated by online sellers, recorded a 2.5% increase in July, reaching their highest level since February 2022. The statistics agency attributed part of the uplift to favourable weather and large sporting events, which can shift spending patterns toward leisure, clothing and garden-related goods.

Retail Economics analyst Nicholas Found said the summer boost reflected selective pockets of demand. "Homewares and fashion continue to rely heavily on promotions rather than a meaningful recovery in demand," he said, adding that some categories were seeing targeted spending driven by product innovation and seasonal factors.

Many retailers reported stronger sales over the summer period, capitalising on outdoor living and events-driven purchases, but the ONS revisions underscore that growth has been uneven. The updated data points to a retail sector that benefited from temporary drivers rather than broad-based, sustained expansion.

The timing of the data comes as retail bosses brace for the UK government’s autumn fiscal statement. Firms across the sector have signalled caution about costs, pricing and consumer confidence, saying they will be watching the November budget for any measures that could affect spending and operating margins.

Analysts noted that while the July uptick offers a welcome relief for some merchants, longer-term pressures remain. Elevated household bills and inflationary pressures continue to shape purchasing decisions, leading many retailers to lean on promotions to maintain volumes.

The ONS said it will continue to review and refine its seasonal adjustment methods to ensure monthly and annual retail measures accurately reflect consumer behaviour. For now, the revised figures present a less volatile, though more modest, picture of summer retail activity than earlier estimates suggested.