US jobs gain in November vs. October decline; unemployment at 4.6% as data arrives late

The United States added 64,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department said Tuesday, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, the highest since 2021. The November gain followed a 105,000-job decline in October, a drop the department attributed to federal payroll shifts and related adjustments that month. The two months were released late because of the 43-day federal government shutdown, a timing issue that has confused the hiring picture and fed uncertainty about the labor market’s pace. The November figure came in well above economists’ forecasts for about 40,000 new jobs.

November’s gains were driven by health care, which added more than 46,000 positions and accounted for more than two-thirds of the 69,000 private-sector jobs created last month. Construction added 28,000. Manufacturing shed 5,000 jobs for the seventh straight month. Workers’ average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from October to November, the smallest gain since August 2023. On a year-over-year basis, pay was up 3.5%, the lowest since May 2021.

Labor Department revisions in September showed that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year that ended in March. That meant that employers added an average of just 71,000 new jobs a month over that period, not the 147,000 first reported. Since March, job creation has fallen farther — to an average 35,000 a month.

Analysts describe a labor market that remains soft but is not deteriorating quickly enough to force a rapid policy response. The slowdown reflects a mix of slower demand and firms’ caution about hiring amid tariff uncertainty, high interest rates enacted by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023, and ongoing adjustments as companies weigh how to deploy artificial intelligence and other technologies. “The takeaway is that the labor market remains on a relatively soft footing, with employers showing little appetite to hire, but are also reluctant to fire,” said Thomas Feltmate, senior economist at TD Economics. “That said, labor demand has cooled more than supply in recent months, which is what’s behind the steady upward drift in the unemployment rate.”

Builders and other workers note the shifting landscape as automation becomes more common in logistics and transportation hubs. “We’re in Lehigh Valley, which is a big transportation hub in eastern Pennsylvania. We’ve seen some cooling in the logistics and transportation markets, specifically because we’ve seen automation in those sectors,” said Matt Hobbie, vice president of a staffing firm in Allentown. The broader context includes a debate within the Federal Reserve about whether to cut further or hold rates, given inflation remains above the 2% target.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last week, but dissent was mounting: three policymakers opposed the move, the most in six years. Two officials favored keeping the rate unchanged. With data released late and in partial form, economists say the central bank will weigh another pullback cautiously, especially if inflation stays stubbornly high. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27-28.