U.S. mortgage rates edge lower, hover near year’s low as inflation data loom

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edged lower this week to 6.21% from 6.22% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday, keeping the rate near its low for the year. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also fell to 5.47% from 5.54% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said. A year ago, the 30-year rate averaged 6.72% and the 15-year 5.92%.

Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve s interest rate policy decisions to bond market expectations for inflation and the economy. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans. The 10-year yield was at 4.12% at midday Thursday, unchanged from a week ago.

The 30-year mortgage rate has been mostly holding steady in recent weeks since it dropped to 6.17%, its lowest level in more than a year, on Oct. 30. Mortgage rates began easing in July in anticipation of a series of Fed rate cuts, which began in September and continued this month. An encouraging report on inflation on Thursday could give the central bank cause to keep cutting rates next year. The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, but when it cuts its short term rate that can signal lower inflation or slower economic growth ahead, which can drive investors to buy U.S. government bonds. That can help lower yields on long term U.S. Treasurys, which can result in lower mortgage rates. Even so, Fed rate cuts do not always translate into lower mortgage rates. That is what happened in the fall of 2024 after the central bank cut its main rate for the first time in more than four years. Instead of falling, mortgage rates marched higher, eventually cresting above 7% in January this year. At that time, the 10-year Treasury yield was climbing toward 5%.

This year s late-summer pullback in rates helped lift sales of previously occupied U.S. homes in October on an annual basis for the fourth straight month. Home shoppers who can afford to pay cash or finance at current mortgage rates are in a more favorable position than they were a year ago. Home listings are up sharply from last year, and many sellers have resorted to lowering their initial asking price as homes take longer to sell, Realtor.com said. Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, said mortgage rates have eased into the low-6% range and inventory remains well above last year s levels, giving buyers more options and greater flexibility. Still, affordability remains a challenge for many aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who do not have equity from an existing home to put toward a new purchase.

Homeowners eager to refinance their home loan to a lower rate have benefited from easing mortgage rates. Applications for mortgage refinance loans made up 59% of all home loan applications last week, the highest level since September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Economists generally forecast that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6% next year, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the economy and labor market.