Australia's first national climate risk assessment warns millions of coastal residents face loss of homes by 2050

Australia's inaugural national climate risk assessment, published Monday, warns that rising seas and coastal hazards put millions of residents at risk of losing their homes within decades unless adaptation measures are accelerated.

The federal assessment projects that 1.5 million coastal residents will be at risk by 2050, increasing to more than 3 million by 2090, as a result of sea-level rise and its compounding effects — coastal flooding, erosion and inundation. The report was released alongside a national adaptation plan that the government describes as a roadmap to manage unavoidable impacts.

"Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it's clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come," Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said as the documents were released. He said the assessment and adaptation plan together set out priorities for protecting communities, regions and industries from the risks identified.

The assessment, described by the government as the nation's first comprehensive evaluation of climate-related risks, focuses on how rising sea levels and more extreme weather will interact with Australia's highly populated coastal fringe. The document indicates that exposure to coastal hazards will increase as sea levels rise and storms intensify, putting residential areas, infrastructure and services at heightened risk of repeated or permanent inundation.

Experts and officials have previously pointed out that Australia’s population is concentrated along the coastline, which amplifies the social and economic consequences of coastal hazards. The assessment's numeric projections are framed as risk estimates tied to different warming scenarios and timeframes, with the near-term figure for 2050 representing roughly 25 years from the report’s publication.

The national adaptation plan released with the assessment outlines actions the government says are intended to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience, though the assessment underscores that some impacts are already unavoidable. The report calls for coordinated planning, investment in protective measures where feasible, and measures to support communities facing repeated flooding, erosion and other climate-driven impacts.

The government did not release detailed local lists of at-risk properties in the initial publication. Officials said further guidance, modelling outputs and policy measures would be provided to states, territories and local governments to inform planning and response. The assessment is expected to inform future decisions on land use, infrastructure investment and insurance arrangements as authorities and communities confront the projected rise in coastal exposure.

The release of the assessment and adaptation plan marks a central step in the federal government's stated effort to address climate risks at a national scale, while the report itself highlights the scale and urgency of planning required to reduce the likelihood that growing numbers of Australians will lose their homes to coastal hazards in the decades ahead.