Cambridge study warns global warming could leave the average person 24% poorer by 2100
Researchers link rising temperatures to widespread income losses across nations, with the biggest impact on hotter, poorer countries; study calls for rapid emissions cuts and adaptation under the Paris Agreement.
Global warming could leave the average person about 24% poorer by 2100, according to researchers at the University of Cambridge. Using models that track 174 countries from 2015 to 2100, the study estimates global GDP per capita could fall by 10–11% under moderate warming and by 20–24% under the most extreme emissions pathway.
Researchers used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed by the IPCC to compare future warming against two baselines: a continuation of temperature trends from 1960–2014 and a hypothetical scenario with no further warming. The authors say climate change reduces income in all countries, regardless of wealth, and that losses accumulate across sectors, from transport to retail. The study was published in PLOS Climate.
Global losses could translate into higher unemployment, lower wages, and shifts in economic structure as wetter and drier conditions disrupt agriculture and coastal industries. Flooding, sea-level rise, and extreme events will increase the need for flood defenses and rebuilding, while tourism and farming near coasts face recurring disruption and higher costs.
The analysis also highlights substantial country-level variation. Hotter, lower-income countries could see losses 30% to 60% higher than the global average, with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Burkina Faso among the frequently cited examples.
Experts say the findings reinforce the imperative to curb greenhouse gas emissions and to invest in adaptation. Limiting warming to slower rates would generate measurable gains in global income; for example, reducing the pace of warming by 0.01°C per year could yield about a 0.25% global income gain relative to a business-as-usual trajectory. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, seeks to keep global temperature increases well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C. The study’s authors say the evidence underscores the importance of meeting and strengthening those targets, as well as tailoring adaptation to country needs.
Even with mitigation and adaptation, long-term growth effects are unlikely to disappear, especially in hotter climates and lower-income regions. The researchers note that no country is immune from climate-driven income losses if emissions remain unchecked, signaling a broad-based economic impact alongside environmental damage.