Gabrielle poised to become hurricane as path shifts away from U.S. coast
Forecasts indicate Gabrielle could reach Category 1 winds early next week, with Bermuda and the Caribbean in the forecast cone and the United States largely spared from major impacts.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to develop into a hurricane within days, with the latest forecast updates showing the system's track shifting away from the U.S. East Coast. Gabrielle currently has sustained winds near 50 mph as it moves through an area of the Atlantic. AccuWeather meteorologists say Gabrielle could reach Category 1 strength on Monday, with winds of 75 to 95 mph, and maintain that intensity through Wednesday, Sept. 24. Forecasters expect the storm to weaken back to a tropical storm as it spirals farther into the middle of the Atlantic. The newest model runs show Gabrielle turning sharply to the right as it approaches Bermuda, a track that would spare the United States from major impacts, though shifts could still bring it closer to parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern United States.
Rough surf and rip currents will be the primary hazards for coastline residents regardless of track. Gabrielle formed quickly on Wednesday, rising from a tropical depression to a named storm in a matter of hours. It is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has been unusually quiet with fewer than three months left in the season. So far this year, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made landfall in the United States, causing at least six deaths and widespread flooding in the Carolinas in July. Only one named storm, Erin, reached hurricane strength this season, exploding into a major Category 5 storm in mid-August. Gabrielle's appearance punctuated a historic stretch of calm not seen in the Atlantic in 33 years.
Forecasters caution that the storm's path remains uncertain and could shift again, bringing the system closer to or farther from various landmasses as it evolves. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: "Interests in the northeastern Caribbean and Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Gabrielle, as any shift in its track could bring wind and rain to the Leeward Islands late this week and this weekend." The potential for a late-week turn toward Bermuda means Bermuda and the northeastern Caribbean will need to watch forecasts closely, while the East Coast remains at lower risk of major impacts for now.
Even as the track appears to bend away from the U.S., forecasters remind residents that any significant shift could bring changes in wind, rain and surf along the Leeward Islands, Bermuda and nearby waters. Gabrielle is forecast to bring rough surf, strong gusts and localized flooding to Bermuda early next week, with the severity depending heavily on the storm's track and intensity. Although major impacts to the United States are not expected, rough surf and dangerous rip currents could affect the East Coast from mid- to late next week if Gabrielle passes near Bermuda.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been characterized by its quiet start, with NOAA previously predicting an above-average year—more than 18 named storms and up to five major hurricanes could form and threaten parts of the East Coast. Meteorologists with AccuWeather have also noted a warming trend, with water temperatures in parts of the Gulf and Caribbean well into the 80s and near 90 degrees Fahrenheit, conditions that favor cyclone development. Tropical storms typically form when Atlantic waters reach roughly 80 degrees F, and current temperatures have supported early-season activity.
A separate tropical wave near Africa, monitored for potential development, is not expected to mature into a threat in the near term. DaSilva said, "This tropical wave is struggling to organize at this time as it is moving through an area with atmospheric conditions that are challenging for tropical development."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with the historical peak typically from Sept. 10 to mid-October. Forecasters emphasize that residents should monitor official forecasts from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center and be prepared to act if warnings are issued. The broader context of Gabrielle’s trajectory underscores the ongoing variability of tropical cyclone activity in a warming Atlantic, reinforcing the need for vigilance along multiple coastal regions as the season progresses.