Gabrielle Struggles to Organize as Forecast Calls for Hurricane Strength by Monday

Tropical Storm Gabrielle remains disorganized as it tracks through the central Atlantic, but forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say it is still forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early next week. As of the latest advisory, Gabrielle has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and is located roughly 850 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph.

Forecasters say Gabrielle’s limited organization is due to strong westerly wind shear and dry air feeding into the cyclone’s circulation. The NHC described the system as a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Conditions are expected to stay hostile for the next several days, with Gabrielle likely holding steady or weakening briefly before gradually strengthening over the weekend. Gabrielle formed on Wednesday after a weekslong lull in tropical activity during the latter half of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, having previously been identified as Invest 92L and Tropical Depression Seven.

As of Thursday, forecasters said Gabrielle could become a Category 1 hurricane by Monday. The system is moving west-northwest to northwest and is forecast to continue in that general direction in the near term. At this time, direct impacts are not expected on the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. East Coast, but Bermuda should monitor the forecast for potential effects as the track remains uncertain and downstream conditions could change.

Separately, an area of disorganized showers near the Cabo Verde Islands previously raised questions about development, but the NHC said further development of that system is no longer anticipated as it moves westward across the eastern and central Atlantic. A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the western coast of Africa by Friday, with slow development possible through the weekend into early next week as it moves west-northwest across the basin. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and forecasters say the overall environment remains capable of spawning additional storms in the ocean basin this autumn.

The potential for Gabrielle to intensify hinges on a shift in atmospheric conditions, which could alter the storm’s trajectory and strength over the coming days. While preparation timelines remain modest for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, Bermuda residents and mariners should stay tuned to official advisories, as forecast models can shift with new data and changes in wind shear and moisture. Forecasters emphasize that the track and intensity could evolve, and residents should monitor updates from the NHC and local meteorological offices.