Global solar and wind overtake coal in 2025, signaling shift in clean energy trajectory

Solar and wind surpassed coal as the leading source of electricity globally in the first half of 2025, marking the first time renewables outpaced coal on a broad measure of electricity generation. The development comes as researchers warn that meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target remains unlikely and fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a record high this year. Yet the momentum for clean energy persists, giving policymakers and investors reason to pursue a faster transition despite political headwinds.

Global and regional data released by energy researchers and intergovernmental bodies show a broad-based shift toward cheaper, cleaner power. In 2024, 91% of new renewable power projects commissioned were more cost-effective than any new fossil fuel alternatives, according to IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency. As Dave Jones of Ember, a global energy think tank, notes, affordability is widening access: “If you don't have a tariff on your renewables, which most countries outside of the U.S. don't have, you're looking to pay $60 for a solar panel. Most people in the world could afford that.” The trend is visible beyond the largest markets: Pakistan generated about a quarter of its utility electricity from solar as of June, well above the global average, reflecting a surge in rooftop and utility-scale solar across income levels.

Across the European Union, solar became the region’s largest source of electricity for the first time in June 2025. In Central Europe, nations such as Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have seen solar generation grow at roughly twice the EU average since 2019, underscoring a broader continental push to diversify away from coal and gas. China has also pressed a rapid transition, with investments in renewable energy both domestically and abroad. Recent analysis indicates China added twice as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined this year, and that the country is likely to reach peak coal generation in 2025, after which coal use may begin a downward trend.

In the United States, a country pursuing fossil-fueled growth under new political leadership, renewables nonetheless expanded due in part to policy incentives that preceded the current administration and are already attracting developers. Solar and wind together accounted for about 88% of the new U.S. electrical generating capacity added in the first eight months of 2025, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. With the expiration of Biden-era tax credits for many renewable projects looming at year’s end, developers rushed to secure eligibility before credits sunset. An industry assessment estimates that roughly 76% of solar projects and 86% of wind projects slated to come online by the end of 2028 will receive those credits, though the policy landscape may temper some later-year additions.

Despite such pullbacks, experts say the core economics of renewables remain favorable. Jonathan Elkind, senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, says the shift toward zero-carbon energy is real and resilient: “There is going to be some degree of clean energy capacity that will not materialize as a consequence of the pullbacks and the policy reversals, but it would be a mistake to count out the clean energy industries, because the competitive alternatives aren't looking that great.” The global energy transition is also being reinforced by broader capacity growth: Ember projects that renewable energy capacity will rise around 11% in 2025, keeping the longer-term goal of tripling renewables by 2030 within reach.

The momentum is not solely a tale of big, public incentives. In many places, rooftop and small-scale solar adoption has accelerated, sometimes funded by households seeking cheaper electricity and greater energy independence. The broad mix of policy environments—from markets with strong competition to those with limited incentives—appears to be converging on a common outcome: renewables are becoming the default option for new capacity.

If the current trajectory continues, the world could be making tangible progress toward decarbonizing electricity faster than some models had anticipated. “There’s lots of reason to take heart that we can actually do this,” says Elkind, stressing that the energy sector’s direction is toward reduced emissions. “We can build a variety of zero carbon resources.”