Hurricane Gabrielle Could Reach the UK This Weekend as Forecasts Diverge

Hurricane Gabrielle, the second major hurricane of this Atlantic season, formed less than a week ago in the mid-Atlantic and rapidly intensified as it neared Bermuda. Forecasters say the storm is expected to weaken as it travels east, but its remnants could still bring a wet and windy end to what has already been a soggy September for parts of the UK, as it interacts with a weather front moving eastward across the Atlantic.

The system is forecast to curve away from North America and toward Europe, but there is considerable uncertainty about its final path. Two of the main global models diverge on the weekend forecast. The European model ensemble (EC) shows a band of rain crossing the UK on Friday night into Saturday as Gabrielle’s remnants swing north of Iberia, with heavier wet and windy weather forecast for Portugal by Sunday. In contrast, the Global Forecast System (GFS) keeps the UK mostly dry, with Gabrielle spinning into the Bay of Biscay and bringing winds and rain mainly to northern Spain on Sunday. It is common for forecast tracks to shift in the coming days, and both scenarios could change.

The United Kingdom has seen a unusually wet spell this month. Environment Agency data show England recorded above-average rainfall for the first time since January during the 12-18 September period, the wettest week in nearly a year. Cardiff has already received about twice its typical rainfall for September, with almost 70 millimeters measured in parts of mid Wales, the Yorkshire Dales, and the North York Moors. Across January through August, the UK as a whole had received only about 44% of its expected annual rainfall, compared with the typical 67% expected by this point in the year.

A high-pressure system this week has brought drier, cooler starts, helping many areas shake off the damp and frost. Monday morning saw a frost in several places, including -0.3 C at Edinburgh Gogarbank and Pershore in Worcestershire—the earliest autumn frost in those locations since 1996. The pattern is expected to become warmer later in the week as more of a southerly wind develops around the high pressure, before Gabrielle’s weekend arrival is re-evaluated.

Forecast uncertainty remains high because hurricanes inject large amounts of energy and heat into the atmosphere, disrupting the jet stream in ways that are difficult for models to capture. This adds to the challenge of predicting the exact track and intensity of what remains of Gabrielle as it moves across the Atlantic. Climate considerations add another layer of complexity: some research suggests tropical cyclones could become more powerful and more erratic as the climate warms, though regional impacts will vary.

Meteorologists urge residents to stay tuned for updated warnings as the weekend approaches. The BBC Weather app and local services will carry the latest track and timing information, reflecting the evolving forecast as new model runs become available.

As the weekend nears, forecasters emphasize that the final track of Gabrielle—whether it brushes the British Isles with rain and gusty winds or keeps the UK drier—depends on how the storm interacts with the mid-Atlantic weather patterns and the jet stream. With multiple scenarios on the table, residents should prepare for a range of conditions, from periods of heavy rain to stronger winds in exposed areas, and monitor for updates.