Hurricane Kiko Rapidly Strengthens to Category 4, Heads Toward Hawaii; Officials Urge Preparations

Hurricane Kiko rapidly intensified into a Category 4 storm as it moved across the eastern Pacific toward the Hawaiian Islands, prompting warnings from forecasters and emergency managers who urged residents to prepare for heavy rain, flooding and possible landslides.

The National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Wednesday night that Kiko had strengthened to sustained winds near 145 mph and was continuing to organize as it moved west-northwest. The system was about 1,600 miles east of Hawaii and advancing at roughly 9 to 10 mph. Forecasters said the hurricane was expected to push into the central Pacific basin later in the week and could maintain major-hurricane strength through much of the coming weekend.

Meteorologists warned that Kiko could intensify further and potentially reach Category 5 strength, a designation for storms with sustained winds of 157 mph or greater. AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert said the storm had moved into an environment of warm ocean waters and light vertical wind shear, conditions that can support rapid strengthening. The storm had already jumped from Category 2 to Category 3 almost overnight on Sept. 2 before reaching Category 4.

Kiko’s hurricane-force winds extended outward up to about 25 miles from the eye, while tropical-storm-force winds reached as far as 80 miles, the NHC said. Forecasters cautioned that these wind radii can change as the storm evolves, and that impacts are possible even if the center of the hurricane does not pass directly over an island.

Model guidance has trended toward tracks that bring Kiko close to or over Hawaii. Several forecast ensembles — the so-called spaghetti models that combine many model runs — have clustered on paths that would take the hurricane toward the northeastern side of the Big Island, with subsequent transit across Maui, Molokai and Oahu. The latest five-day official forecast kept the center north of the islands through midweek but placed nearly the entire state within the storm’s cone of uncertainty.

Emergency managers in the state urged residents to prepare now. Oahu Emergency Management released a public notice saying that it was time to get ready and reminded people that storms can produce dangerous impacts even if the core passes north of the islands. Authorities noted that Hawaii’s population is roughly 1.5 million people and that preparations should include securing property and reviewing evacuation routes for flood-prone or landslide-prone areas.

Forecasters warned that the primary hazards from Kiko for parts of Hawaii would be torrential rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides. Up to 6 to 8 inches of rain were being forecast for eastern and northern sections of the Big Island and parts of northern Maui in model runs cited by weather services, amounts that could trigger flash flooding, road washouts and deadly landslides in steep, vulnerable terrain. Tourism-heavy areas on Maui and other islands could also experience impacts as the system approaches.

The prospect of a direct major-hurricane strike on Hawaii is historically uncommon. The last major hurricane to make a direct landfall on the state was Hurricane Iniki on Sept. 11, 1992, which struck Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds near 145 mph, causing multiple fatalities and widespread destruction.

Kiko’s intensification through early September followed a pattern of rapid strengthening linked to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Forecasters noted that warm sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone and low vertical wind shear allowed the storm’s structure to consolidate and intensify over a short period. The NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said they would continue to issue regular advisories as the system moves across the basin and as more observational data become available.

Officials emphasized that the forecast track and intensity remain subject to change and urged residents and visitors to monitor updates from the NHC, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies. They also warned that the state could experience hazardous conditions even if the center of Kiko remains offshore, due to rain bands, surf and localized flooding.

The NHC’s public advisories, forecast cones and tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings — if issued — will provide the official guidance on timing and expected impacts for individual islands. Emergency managers said they were coordinating with state and local partners to monitor potential needs for sheltering, road closures and other emergency measures.

As Kiko approaches the central Pacific, forecasters warned that residents should treat the situation with urgency, follow official guidance and make preparations for possible power outages, flooding and hazardous travel. The storm’s evolution over the coming days will determine whether it reaches the highest intensity levels and the extent of impacts across the Hawaiian Islands.