India’s Great Nicobar Development Plan Threatens Unique Ecosystem and Indigenous Peoples

The Indian government’s proposal to build a container port, airport, power plant and township on Great Nicobar Island has alarmed scientists, tribal advocates and some regional experts who say the project could destroy irreplaceable rainforests, marine habitats and the livelihoods and cultures of indigenous peoples.

The plan, announced by the federal government in 2020 and pursued since, would develop the southern tip of the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago into a commercial and strategic hub. Proponents cite the island’s proximity to the Malacca Strait — a chokepoint through which roughly one-third of global maritime trade passes — and national security imperatives to justify the project. Critics say those arguments conflict with the island’s ecological sensitivity and seismic vulnerability and that the scheme is unlikely to be commercially viable without sustained public subsidies.

Great Nicobar, roughly 1,000 miles from mainland India, supports a high level of endemism and biodiversity. Scientists have documented some 2,500 species of plants and animals across the island and neighboring islets; more than 400 of those species are found only on Great Nicobar or adjacent small islands. Among them are the Nicobar long-tailed macaque, coconut crabs, ancient saltwater crocodiles, the diminutive crested serpent eagle, and the ground-dwelling Nicobar pigeon, a close living relative of the dodo. Offshore reefs, seagrass beds and undersea ridges shelter hundreds of fish species, dugongs and at least 15 species of dolphins and whales.

The shoreline at Galathea Bay is one of the region’s most important leatherback sea turtle nesting sites. Conservationists estimate fewer than 1,000 female leatherbacks remain in the northeastern Indian Ocean; 618 females nested at Galathea Bay in 2023–24 alone. Environmentalists warn that dredging, silt displacement and loss of nesting beaches would sharply reduce hatchling survival and could imperil local and regional populations.

The project blueprint would require the clearance of roughly 50 square miles of rainforest in its first phase, according to government statements, with some ecological assessments and independent researchers projecting substantially higher tree loss if all ancillary infrastructure is included. A second phase would expand development to as much as 90 square miles, nearly one-fifth of Great Nicobar’s land area, and government sources have outlined longer-term scenarios that could ultimately place most of the island under development by the 2040s.

Officials supporting the plan say a container port on Great Nicobar could halve sailing times for feeder vessels to India’s eastern ports and capture revenue that currently flows to Colombo and Singapore. They also frame the works as enhancing maritime connectivity and security in the eastern Indian Ocean amid rising regional competition.

Opponents point to the island’s turbulent geology. Great Nicobar sits above an active seismic fault line; an earthquake whose epicenter near the Nicobar Islands contributed to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused the island’s southern tip to sink by about 15 feet and washed away coastal settlements. Geologists continue to record seismic activity in the area, and experts warn that an active tectonic setting raises the risk of future earthquakes, tsunamis or volcanic events that could endanger any major coastal infrastructure.

Economic feasibility is another disputed element. Building and servicing large projects on an island nearly 1,000 miles from the mainland raises construction and operating costs, industry sources contend, because materials and equipment must be transported long distances. Estimates circulated in regional planning discussions put the port alone at roughly $5 billion and the entire program at about $10 billion. Critics argue that without a hinterland to generate sustained cargo traffic, the port would struggle to compete with established transshipment centers like Colombo and Singapore and would likely require ongoing taxpayer subsidies.

Human-rights and public-health risks have become central to the debate. Great Nicobar is home to the Shompen, an indigenous people who number between about 200 and 400 and who have largely avoided sustained contact with outsiders. Another group, the Great Nicobarese, once lived along the western coast before the 2004 tsunami displaced many community members. Scholars and tribal advocates have warned that a dramatic influx of workers and settlers — planners have suggested up to 350,000 people could relocate to staff and support the development, an increase of roughly 40 times the island’s population — would expose isolated communities to diseases and cultural disruption.

A group of scholars of genocide signed a letter to India’s president asserting that the Shompen and other indigenous residents could face catastrophic harm if the project proceeds. Federal agencies responsible for environmental protection and tribal welfare have approved certain administrative changes that critics say have facilitated planning, including rescinding the protected status of Galathea Bay as a marine turtle reserve, reducing the boundaries of a UNESCO-designated biosphere reserve and altering the legal boundaries of a Shompen reserve.

Environmental impact documentation required by Indian law has been a focal point of contention. Critics say government-prepared assessments understate risks and mischaracterize effects on indigenous populations, and they have criticized proposals to concentrate the Shompen within fenced areas to minimize interactions with newcomers. Conservationists argue that planned mitigation measures — including proposals to move corals or to relocate some wildlife and reforest cleared tracts in distant parts of northern India — cannot replicate the island’s interlocked ecosystems or replace locally adapted habitats.

Authorities have moved forward on preparatory steps even as litigation and public opposition have intensified. Officials invited expressions of interest from contractors before the completion of all impact studies and have shifted the locations of wildlife sanctuaries. Local leaders and residents who oppose the project say they have faced administrative pressure and restrictions on travel and meetings with visiting officials. Reporters who have reached Great Nicobar have reported heightened surveillance by police and federal intelligence personnel.

Private-sector interest in aspects of the project has been evident. A range of firms have signaled interest in construction contracts, and at least one large port operator has been publicly associated with expressions of interest. Observers note that many bidders seek building contracts rather than long-term operating concessions. Logging and land-sale activity has also crept into local markets, with advertisements for land and timber appearing on social media and reports of purchases by outside parties.

In response to mounting criticism, New Delhi announced a funding package to study some environmental effects and species impacts, a move officials described as addressing scientific concerns. Environmental groups said the studies are welcome but inadequate because they omit many species found only on Great Nicobar and because they come after several administrative changes that critics say have pre-shaped outcomes.

The debate over Great Nicobar underscores a broader tension in India’s development strategy between infrastructure expansion and environmental and cultural preservation. Supporters argue the project would strengthen logistics and coastal security; opponents contend the ecological and social costs are irreversible and that the scheme is economically dubious. If the development proceeds, conservationists warn it may deliver immediate commercial and political gains to contractors and intermediaries while exacting long-term losses on biodiversity and the lives of indigenous residents.

The outcome of legal challenges, ongoing administrative procedures and public pressure will determine whether Great Nicobar remains one of the region’s last relatively undisturbed ecological strongholds or is transformed into a contested frontier of infrastructure, commerce and contested environmental trade-offs.