Liberal frontbencher threatens to quit over net zero, risking party split over climate policy

Andrew Hastie, a senior Liberal frontbencher and one of the party’s most prominent conservatives, has told colleagues he will resign from the shadow cabinet unless the Coalition abandons its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, a move that has raised the prospect of a damaging split within the Liberal Party and across the Coalition.

Hastie’s ultimatum, publicly reported this week, has sharpened existing tensions between the Liberal Party’s conservative and moderate wings over climate policy and could cascade into resignations, leadership instability and strains with Coalition partners in the Nationals. The target to reach net zero by 2050 is central to the government’s stated climate objective and is backed by many moderates in the party.

Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce has separately introduced a private member’s bill to abolish the net zero target, and has in recent days urged colleagues not to precipitate an intra-Coalition showdown. Jonathan Duniam, a Liberal frontbencher, warned there could be a “mass exodus” from the frontbench if the party did not alter or qualify its support for net zero, comments that reflect growing unease among some Coalition figures.

Hastie is regarded inside the party as a potential future leader and as one of the next generation of conservative figures. His stance brings the internal opposition to net zero into the open in a way that could make it harder for leader Sussan Ley to present a united front. Ley has previously signalled more moderate views on climate policy than some of her conservative colleagues, and it is unclear whether she would agree to drop the 2050 target.

The political arithmetic compounds the challenge. The Coalition currently has 43 lower house MPs and several dozen senators; the shadow frontbench is composed of 30 shadow ministers and 15 shadow assistant ministers, a total of 45 positions. Party officials have privately warned that if the Nationals were to withdraw from the Coalition or if a sizeable group of Liberals refused to serve on a frontbench that supported (or opposed) net zero, there might not be enough MPs and senators to fill the full frontbench slate.

The split over net zero is not new. Internal divisions on climate policy date back more than a decade to the late-2000s disputes that contributed to the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader in 2009. Conservative scepticism about net zero and broader decarbonisation strategies has persisted, while moderates and younger members of the electorate tend to prioritize emissions reduction commitments.

Some senior conservatives argue the 2050 target is largely symbolic because it is distant — 25 years away — and because current policy trajectories and technology choices make the goal difficult to achieve without significant changes. Former prime minister Tony Abbott, speaking earlier this year, suggested the Coalition should focus on a “clear, sensible and credible energy policy” rather than becoming mired in debates over the theological question of net zero.

Other Coalition figures, including those in the moderate faction, caution that abandoning the target would carry political costs. Polling in recent years has shown stronger support for climate action among younger voters and a growing portion of the broader electorate. Opponents of net zero fear that ditching the commitment would allow the Labor Party to portray the Liberals as out of step with voters concerned about climate change.

Labor has indicated it may use any public debate over net zero to highlight divisions within the Coalition. Observers note that internal contests over policy are likely to surface in parliamentary proceedings: Joyce’s private member’s bill is expected to prompt debate and potentially votes that could expose factional fault lines on the Coalition benches.

Hastie has framed his stand as a matter of principle, arguing the party should not endorse a target it does not intend to meet or underpin with the policies required to deliver it. Critics of Hastie’s approach say the party can contest the government’s specific climate policies, including measures that affect energy prices and household costs, while still supporting a long-term emissions goal.

The immediate effect of the dispute is expected to be pressure on Ley’s leadership as she seeks to maintain unity while setting the Coalition’s approach to climate policy ahead of the next election cycle. Party insiders say the choice facing the Liberal Party is between adopting a firmer anti-net-zero position that could placate conservatives but alienate moderates and environmental-minded voters, or retaining the 2050 target and risking defections from influential conservative figures.

For now, the standoff has made climate policy a central fault line within the Coalition. The outcome will influence not only the composition of the opposition frontbench but also the shape of federal debate on emissions policy, energy technology choices and the political framing of climate action in the years leading to 2050.