Severe storms threaten southern states with risk of strong tornadoes as fall begins

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center issued a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains on Tuesday, with forecasters warning that northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas could see strong tornadoes. The agency said thunderstorms along a cold front could organize into strong supercells Tuesday afternoon, potentially producing tornadoes rated EF-2 or greater.

The risk spans nine states, but the greatest tornado threat Tuesday is centered in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, where the SPC has declared a Level 3 risk and warned of possible tornadoes in the EF-2 range or stronger. A Level 2 risk covers parts of North Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, while a Level 1 area stretches from Dallas toward Nashville, signaling a broader mix of severe-weather hazards including large hail and damaging winds.

Officials cautioned that roughly 2.1 million people are in the path of hail larger than 2 inches, and forecasters said the storm system could bring multiple rounds of storms into the evening and overnight hours. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are likely from Oklahoma to East Tennessee, with isolated pockets of 5 to 8 inches in some locations. Flood watches cover more than 5 million people across eastern Kansas through Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas through Wednesday.

Sunday's storms pelted the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex with hail and contributed to the partial collapse of the roof at a Walmart distribution center, underscoring the ongoing risk as fall storms begin to take shape in the region.

Officials urged residents in the high-risk corridor to monitor forecasts and heed warnings, to secure loose objects, and to prepare for possible power outages and travel disruptions. Those in tornado-warned areas were advised to seek shelter in a sturdy building away from windows, and motorists were cautioned to avoid flooded roadways.

Analysts note that fall tends to bring an uptick in severe weather across the central United States as jet-stream patterns shift and cooler air settles in at the surface, creating environments that favor repeated storm development along a front. The current setup involves an area of low pressure moving beneath a dip in the jet stream, with thunderstorms expected to fire along the front from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and possibly continuing through Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Forecasters will continue to monitor the evolving system and issue updates as necessary. The event underscores how the start of autumn can bring heightened severe-weather risk to the Plains and surrounding states, requiring ongoing vigilance from residents and emergency managers until the system passes.