Tropical Depression Seven Poised to Become Hurricane Gabrielle, Could Threaten U.S. East Coast

A tropical depression that formed in the central Atlantic early Wednesday has the potential to strengthen into Hurricane Gabrielle and threaten the U.S. East Coast next week, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Seven formed around 5 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. The system had sustained winds of about 35 mph and meteorologists said it was quickly organizing; forecasters indicated it could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle as soon as Wednesday night and reach hurricane strength by the weekend with winds exceeding 75 mph.

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said the depression is moving into an area of the Atlantic with "low wind shear and increased mid-level moisture," conditions that typically favor rapid organization and intensification of tropical cyclones. Low wind shear reduces disruptive winds that can tear storms apart, while greater moisture between about 5,000 and 20,000 feet provides fuel for thunderstorms and the strong upward air currents that build a storm's core.

Early computer model guidance shows a range of possible tracks. Some model runs bring the system near Bermuda by early Monday before turning it toward the U.S. East Coast, where states from the Carolinas to New England could face hurricane-strength winds and heavy rain. Other model solutions curve the system eastward and keep it over the open Atlantic. Meteorologists cautioned that model consensus remains low and the forecast track could change as the storm evolves.

Meteorologists refer to the array of model solutions as a "spaghetti" plot because each line represents a different computer program's projection. If the lines cluster closely, the forecast is more certain; in this case the lines are spread, reflecting continuing uncertainty about steering currents and the storm's eventual path.

If the system becomes Gabrielle this week, it would break a 33-year lull in named storms during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. There has not been a named storm in the Atlantic since Tropical Storm Fernand dissipated on Aug. 29. The last time a similarly long gap occurred during the season's peak was 1992, after the destructive Category 5 Hurricane Andrew.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast an "above average" season this year, predicting more named storms than the 18 observed in 2024. Gabrielle would be the seventh named storm of this season to date.

Forecasters stressed that details on timing, intensity and landfall prospects are subject to change. Steering currents over the next several days will largely determine whether the system tracks northward and away from the Caribbean and the U.S. mainland or recurs eastward into the Atlantic. Residents and officials along the East Coast and in Bermuda were urged to monitor advisories from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency-management agencies as forecasts are updated.

The system's development comes as emergency planners and coastal communities watch seasonal forecasts and prepare for the peak months of hurricane activity. Continued monitoring of satellite data, reconnaissance aircraft observations and updated computer model guidance will refine intensity and track forecasts in the days ahead.