Autism by the numbers: Experts cite reasons for the surge in diagnoses
Health officials say rising autism rates reflect better detection, broader criteria and greater access to services, not necessarily a new epidemic.
Autism diagnoses have continued to rise across the United States and around the world, health officials say, prompting renewed discussion about causes, screening and care. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tracked a steady increase in autism diagnoses: by 2022, about 1 in 31 children were diagnosed, up from 1 in 68 in 2010 and 1 in 150 in 2000. At a Monday press conference in Washington, D.C., health officials addressed possible causes, vaccine guidance and the potential for a cancer drug to double as autism therapy.
"Experts say the rise reflects a complex mix of factors rather than a single explanation," said Dr. Steven Quay, M.D., Ph.D., founder of Atossa Therapeutics in Seattle. "In the 1970s, autism was considered rare—perhaps 1 in 5,000 to 10,000 children. By 2000, an estimated one in 150 children aged 8 had the disorder. By 2010, that number had risen to one in 68 — and by 2022, one in 31 children were diagnosed." He added that autism is no longer an uncommon condition tucked away in psychiatric textbooks; it is part of the daily fabric of schools, clinics and families everywhere. Dr. Aggie Papazyan, a Los Angeles-based psychologist specializing in autism spectrum disorder, noted that prevalence varies by region and that how autism is measured makes a big difference. "These rates vary by region. In many places, especially in higher-income settings with more robust diagnostic and health resources, prevalence estimates have gone up," she told Fox News Digital. "However, it’s important to note that how autism is measured makes a big difference." She cautioned against interpreting rising numbers as evidence of a biological epidemic.
The CDC has also noted that improved identification could account for part of the increase, while other factors may be at play. Papazyan said decades ago many autistic people were missed, misdiagnosed or labeled differently, and there does not appear to be a sudden biological spike. "There doesn't seem to be a sudden surge in biological incidence," she said. "Awareness, diagnostic definitions and screening have expanded, and that development is not a surprise to see in the numbers."
"Environmental influences likely play some role," Quay added. He argued that prenatal exposures, maternal health changes and shifts in early childhood experiences could contribute to rising rates, even as better detection grows more important. "Environmental influences, from prenatal exposures to changes in maternal health to shifts in early childhood experiences, likely play some role." Still, he cautioned that a true rise in incidence is not proven and that other factors are at work.
To address the trend, the experts urged a broader public-health response, including expanding awareness and acceptance while reducing stigma, which can influence how resources are allocated. Papazyan called for increasing diagnostic and assessment services, especially in underserved communities, so that people are properly diagnosed and receive the care they need. She also emphasized funding for early intervention programs, such as speech, occupational and behavioral therapies. "The biggest need is for resources that reach people who are underserved so they can be diagnosed early and connected with services," she said. The discussion also covered supports for autistic people as they age, including mental health services, financial assistance and life-skills development. "Interventions are needed that go beyond childhood, because autistic adults will spend most of their lives outside the school system, yet services for them are almost nonexistent," Quay said. "Fifty years ago, many individuals on the spectrum were mislabeled."
Looking ahead, Papazyan predicts that autism prevalence will continue to rise over the next few years before it slows and eventually reaches a plateau. Quay also expects that prevalence will continue to rise in the near term, largely due to improvements in detection and societal willingness to diagnose. "Whether there is a biological plateau remains to be seen," he said. "If environmental contributors are identified and mitigated, we could see stabilization." The experts stressed that the rise is a call to invest in services that support autistic people throughout life, not just in early childhood.
The broad takeaway from the briefing is that while the numbers have climbed, there is no consensus that the rise stems from a new biological incidence. Instead, experts point to a mix of improved detection, expanded definitions, greater screening, and better service access, alongside ongoing research into environmental influences. As states and districts seek to expand early-intervention programs and widen supports for autistic adults, the public-health framing remains focused on enabling timely diagnosis, reducing stigma and ensuring sustained resources across the lifespan.
For families, clinicians and policymakers, the message is that the trend is not a single crisis with a simple fix but a signal to strengthen systems that identify, treat and support people on the autism spectrum at every stage of life. Health officials and researchers say continued monitoring, funding and collaboration will be essential as the field works toward a more complete understanding of what drives the rise and how best to meet the needs of autistic individuals and their families.