Global cancer deaths could rise 75% by 2050, Lancet study finds

Global cancer deaths are projected to rise by about 75% by 2050, driven by ageing populations and rising prevalence of obesity and other unhealthy lifestyles, according to a major international analysis published in The Lancet. The study estimates there will be about 30.5 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2050, up from 18.5 million in 2023, and about 18.6 million cancer deaths per year by mid-century — a level roughly 75% higher than today. The latest figures come as researchers note that cancer cases have more than doubled since 1990, from roughly 9.1 million to 18.5 million, while deaths climbed from about 6.0 million to 10.4 million in the same period. The authors say population aging and the growing prevalence of obesity, sedentary lifestyles and other risk factors are key drivers, and they urge governments to expand prevention, screening and treatment access to curb the rising toll.

Across the United Kingdom, the cancer burden is already acute: more than 400,000 people are diagnosed with cancer each year, roughly 1,000 every day. The pandemic disrupted cancer services in 2020, with many diagnostic scans canceled or delayed as the health system redirected resources toward coronavirus care. Some analysts estimated that about 40,000 cancers went undiagnosed during the first year of the pandemic. In the current cycle, NHS England data show ongoing strain and targets not consistently met.

In July, NHS England reported 308,636 urgent cancer referrals from general practitioners. Of these, 76.6% were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days, just above the 75% target. However, just 92.4% of patients started treatment within 31 days of being booked, well below the 96% goal, and only 69.2% of newly diagnosed patients referred for urgent treatment were seen within two months, short of the 85% target. The figures illustrate the persistent pressures on UK cancer services even as some other health indicators improve.

The Lancet study analyzed 47 cancer types across 204 countries from 1990 to 2023, adjusting for aging to compare trends across places. It found Lebanon experienced the largest rise in both cancer cases and deaths over the 33-year period, about 80%. Equatorial Guinea and Laos followed, with mortality increases of roughly 72% and 55.8% respectively. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates recorded the steepest fall in cases (about 56%), while Kazakhstan posted the largest decline in deaths (about 58.2%). The United Kingdom recorded a 23.4% reduction in cancer deaths, and the United States and Australia saw declines of about 32.5% and 33.2%, respectively.

Globally, breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer in 2023 when viewed across sexes, while lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer deaths. The researchers noted that about 42% of cancer deaths worldwide were linked to modifiable lifestyle factors, including tobacco use, unhealthy diets, high blood sugar and exposure to toxins. Tobacco smoking accounted for roughly 21% of cancer deaths globally. Among lower-income countries, unsafe sex was the leading risk factor, contributing about 12.5% of cancer deaths.

The report underscored calls from public health bodies for stronger action on prevention and risk reduction. Cancer Research UK chief executive Michelle Mitchell said the global rise in cancer mirrors the UK trend, noting that tobacco remains a leading cause of cancer and urging prioritization of prevention measures, including HPV vaccination and tobacco-control legislation as part of a broader national cancer plan to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment across the country. Dr. Lisa Force, an assistant professor in health metric sciences at the University of Washington and a study co-author, warned that cancer control policies and funding remain underprioritized in many settings and urged stronger investment in equitable access to diagnosis, treatment and supportive care.

Experts said the findings should spur international cooperation to reduce disparities in health-system capacity and access to essential cancer services. They emphasized that expanding screening programs, improving early detection, and ensuring affordable, timely treatment are critical to bending the projected trajectory and improving outcomes for patients around the world.