Global cancer deaths forecast to rise 75% by 2050, Lancet study finds

Global cancer deaths are forecast to rise by as much as 75% by 2050, driven by aging populations and ongoing exposure to risk factors such as obesity and tobacco use, according to a large-scale study published in The Lancet. The analysis notes that cancer cases worldwide more than doubled from 1990 to 2023, reaching about 18.5 million new cases in 2023, while cancer deaths climbed 74% to roughly 10.4 million. Projections suggest the global burden will climb to about 30.5 million new cancer cases annually by 2050, an increase of around 61% from 2023, with deaths reaching roughly 18.6 million per year. Experts urged governments to strengthen prevention and screening programs to curb the trajectory and improve survival rates.

The study analyzed 47 cancer types in 204 countries from 1990 to 2023, using age-standardized figures to account for population changes. It found that Lebanon recorded the largest rise in both cancer cases and deaths over the period, each up about 80%. Equatorial Guinea and Laos followed, with mortality increases of roughly 72% and 56% respectively. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates saw the largest drop in cancer cases, down about 56%, while Kazakhstan posted the steepest decline in deaths, down about 58%. The United Kingdom registered a 23.4% fall in cancer deaths, with the United States and Australia also reporting declines of about 32.5% and 33.2% respectively. The research also identified breast cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide in 2023 when cases were considered across sexes, and lung cancer as the leading cause of cancer-related deaths.

The authors also estimated that about 42% of global cancer deaths were linked to modifiable lifestyle factors, including tobacco use, unhealthy diets, high blood sugar and exposure to toxins. Tobacco alone accounted for about 21% of cancer deaths globally. In lower-income countries, unsafe sexual practices emerged as a notable risk factor, contributing roughly 12.5% of cancer deaths. The report notes that while some regions are making progress, the burden remains heavily influenced by preventable risks and disparities in access to care.

In the United Kingdom, the scale of the challenge is evident: more than 400,000 people are diagnosed with cancer each year, or around 1,000 every day, with prostate, breast, bowel and lung cancers the most common. The pandemic disrupted cancer services in 2020, with many routine appointments and diagnostic scans delayed as the health system focused on COVID-19. Experts have since estimated that tens of thousands of cancers went undiagnosed during the first year of the pandemic. More recently, NHS data show mixed progress on targets for cancer referrals and treatment.

In July, the NHS England reported 308,636 urgent cancer referrals by GPs, of which 76.6% were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days, just above the 75% target. However, treatment timeliness remained a concern: 92.4% of patients began treatment within 31 days of being booked in July, below the 96% goal. Additionally, only 69.2% of newly diagnosed cancer patients referred for urgent treatment were seen within two months, below the 85% target. Health analysts say the figures underscore ongoing strain on the system and the need for sustained investment, staffing and capacity improvements.

Public health advocates welcomed calls for stronger prevention efforts, including HPV vaccination and tobacco control, while stressing that broader policy action is essential to bend the curve. Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, said the rising global burden is reflected in the UK, where there are nearly 1,100 new cases daily. She urged a greater international focus on prevention and highlighted tobacco control as a top priority, noting that the upcoming National Cancer Plan for England could provide the NHS with needed resources to diagnose cancers earlier and ensure timely treatment regardless of patients’ location. Dr. Lisa Force, an assistant professor in health metric sciences at the University of Washington and study co-author, urged greater prioritization of cancer control policies and increased funding to address gaps in diagnosis, treatment and supportive care, stressing the need to reduce disparities in health-service delivery across regions. The study emphasizes that achieving equitable cancer outcomes will require sustained investments in screening, early diagnosis and access to high-quality treatment and supportive services.