GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could add years to Americans' lives, study finds

A Swiss reinsurance study projects that GLP-1 medications used to treat obesity and diabetes could shorten Americans’ lifespans in the near term by reducing overall mortality, with potential gains expected over the coming two decades. The researchers estimate that by 2045, the United States could see about a 6.4% reduction in all-cause mortality attributable to the drugs, while the United Kingdom could exceed a 5% decline over the same 20-year period. The findings come as obesity remains a major public health challenge in both countries, where more than 40% of U.S. adults and about 30% of U.K. adults are classified as obese. GLP-1 therapies have gained wide uptake for weight loss and diabetes management, prompting renewed discussion about their population-level impact.

The study, released in a press release by Swiss Re, notes that obesity and related metabolic conditions help explain why progress in life expectancy has stalled in high-income countries. The authors emphasize that improvements in baseline risk factors—not just medication—will determine the eventual population-wide impact. They cite the interplay between obesity and leading causes of death, including heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and various cancers, as central to projecting mortality trends in the coming decades. The researchers say the projected mortality reductions would stem from improvements in risk factors across large segments of the population, alongside ongoing use of GLP-1 therapies when appropriately prescribed and monitored.

The researchers also flagged that the full benefit of GLP-1 drugs will hinge on more than pharmacology. In the press release, Paul Murray, Swiss Re’s CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance, said the findings point to a broader opportunity: insurers and health systems can partner to promote preventive measures and sustainable health improvements. “Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication,” Murray wrote. “As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention.” He added that if the approach is right, it could strengthen the insurance safety net and help people live longer, healthier lives.

The analysis reflects a growing body of evidence that GLP-1 medications can improve a range of conditions beyond weight loss and diabetes. In their briefing, Swiss Re researchers pointed to potential benefits for heart, kidney and liver health, as well as cognitive function and certain cancers, though they stressed that more research is needed to quantify these broader effects across populations. The study’s scope and methodology review noted that GLP-1 drugs have already shown favorable effects on metabolic and inflammatory pathways, which can translate into reduced risk for several obesity-related diseases over time.

Dr. Sue Decotiis, a triple board-certified weight-loss physician practicing in New York who spoke with Fox News Digital, described how GLP-1 therapies can influence inflammatory processes. She explained that weight loss medications reduce the size of fat cells, which in turn lowers the production of inflammatory cytokines linked to autoimmune issues, certain cancers and other conditions. “By reducing the volume of fat cells in the body, we reduce all these inflammatory cytokines,” Decotiis said. She cautioned that the medications must be used responsibly and as part of a broader plan that includes diet and physical activity. “It’s important to do it the right way and really treat these drugs with respect, treat your body with respect, and understand that this is a wonderful tool if it’s used the right way.”

Experts note that the drugs are not a stand-alone solution. While GLP-1 therapies can support meaningful weight loss and improve metabolic risk factors, scientists and clinicians alike emphasize that sustainable lifestyle changes—healthy eating patterns, regular physical activity and ongoing medical supervision—are essential to maximize benefits and minimize weight regain or rebound after stopping treatment. In interviews with health reporters, clinicians have stressed that the best outcomes arise when medication is paired with behavior modification and clinical monitoring tailored to individual risk profiles. The message from researchers and clinicians is consistent: medications can shift risk, but durable health gains depend on comprehensive, long-term approaches.

Public health researchers have long warned that obesity contributes to a large share of mortality in high-income countries. The current projections underscore the potential for GLP-1 therapies to alter those trajectories if integrated into broader health strategies. The study’s authors highlighted that the obesity epidemic remains a central barrier to extending life expectancy, and that population-wide gains would require sustained access to effective therapies alongside policies that address food environments, physical activity opportunities and socioeconomic determinants of health.

Insurers and healthcare providers may play a pivotal role in translating these findings into real-world benefits. Murray emphasized that the insurance sector can support preventive programs, encourage adherence, and foster partnerships with policymakers to align incentives with long-term health improvements. “If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives,” he said. The study’s projections, while encouraging, also serve as a reminder of the need for careful monitoring of safety profiles and long-term outcomes as GLP-1 medications become more widely used across diverse populations.

Beyond the immediate implications for mortality projections, the researchers noted that GLP-1 medications are already changing clinical practice by offering additional therapeutic value for conditions associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome. They cited growing interest in how these drugs could influence comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and kidney impairment, while acknowledging that ongoing trials and real-world data are essential to validate long-term benefits and to understand the balance of risks and rewards across different patient groups. As the medical community continues to study these therapies, health systems are tasked with ensuring equitable access, appropriate monitoring, and cost considerations that support sustainable, population-wide health gains.

The study’s timeline reflects ambitious projections: by 2045, reductions in mortality could accumulate as more patients gain access to GLP-1 therapies and adhere to integrated treatment plans. The authors cautioned that the pace of uptake, payer policies, regulatory oversight, and patient engagement will all shape the realized impact. In the near term, clinicians and researchers say encouraging healthy lifestyle choices remains foundational, with medications serving as a helpful adjunct rather than a substitute for behavior changes. As policymakers weigh coverage decisions and providers optimize care pathways, the message to patients is clear: GLP-1 drugs can be a powerful tool when used as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce obesity-related risk and extend healthy life expectancy.