Has flu peaked? UK data show signs of stabilisation but officials urge caution
UK health agency says community spread has stabilised and hospital admissions have slowed as vaccination efforts continue
The NHS remains on high alert over flu, but early signs indicate the surge has eased for now. Community spread appears to have stabilised, according to the UK Health Security Agency. Hospital admissions have slowed as well. England is reporting just over 3,000 patients in hospital with flu, and the forecast of 5,000 to 8,000 hospital cases has not materialised.
Flu this season began spreading earlier than normal. When people seek care for flu‑like symptoms, they can be swabbed for influenza, Covid, RSV and other viruses, and UKHSA records the percentage testing positive for flu. Figures had been rising quickly through autumn and into winter, but last week the spread appeared to stabilise at a medium level. It is too early to say whether this marks the start of a peak. The pattern is broadly similar across the four nations, and some scientists say the earlier start is linked to the current dominant strain, H3N2, which historically can lead to more hospitalisations in older people. H3N2 has not been the main form detected in the UK for three years, possibly leaving less immunity in the population. A further genetic shift observed in the virus over the summer may have helped it gain head start this autumn.
The NHS has cautioned against calling the season a super flu. The term, used by some to describe a more infectious variant, is not a medical designation and does not mean the virus is harder to treat. Experts say the season may be two to three weeks earlier than normal, with the current variant driving the early wave.
The NHS also tracks the sickest patients in hospital with flu, a metric that tends to lag behind community spread. Last week the number rose to 3,140 in England, an 18 percent increase from the week before, after a 55 percent jump the prior week. There is regional variation, with some areas easing and others still rising. Those aged 85 and older remain five times more likely to be hospitalised than the general population.
Comparing flu deaths across decades is difficult because testing and population factors have changed. In 2017-18, deaths linked to flu in England are thought to have approached about 25,000, with care homes and older adults most affected. Two years earlier, in 2014-15, modelling suggested about 35,000 deaths in a severe season. There is nothing yet in the 2025 data to suggest a figure in that range will be repeated, but officials caution that the first influenza death estimates for this season will not be published until the new year.
The vaccine remains a central public health tool. The main jab is still thought to offer protection against severe disease even as the virus mutates. The vaccine is free on the NHS for those aged 65 and over, pregnant women, young children, people with certain health conditions, carers and frontline health and social care workers. All other adults can access the same vaccine for between 15 and 25 pounds from high street pharmacies. The latest data show that more than 70 percent of older people and care home residents had taken up the offer by 14 December, but uptake among other groups is lower, with only about 45 percent of frontline NHS workers vaccinated so far.
Health authorities emphasise that vaccination remains the best defense as the season continues and that testing remains broad to capture influenza, Covid-19 and RSV. Officials say ongoing vaccination campaigns are essential to protect vulnerable populations as the virus evolves.
