NHS 18-week pledge hangs in balance as waiting times likely to miss target, Health Foundation warns

The government's flagship pledge to return England's NHS waiting times to the 18-week standard by the end of the parliamentary term is hanging in the balance, according to an analysis by the Health Foundation. On current trends, waiting times would remain well above the target, with the think tank warning that the push to cut waits could come at the expense of other priorities such as improving access to GPs.

The 18-week target requires 92% of patients to be treated within that period. It has not been hit for a decade, with waiting times swelling during the pandemic as hospitals scaled back routine care. When Labour came to power, about 7.6 million patients were on waiting lists for treatments such as knee and hip replacements, and 58.8% waited less than 18 weeks. Over the past year that has improved to 61.3%.

The Health Foundation's analysis indicates that, even if the current rate of improvement continues, England will not reach the 92% target by the end of the Parliament. Just over a third of NHS trusts are making the necessary progress under the government's waiting-time plan published at the start of this year. The think tank also warned that progress could falter if referrals rise more quickly than expected, particularly given the ageing population. The prospect of more industrial action by resident doctors could further complicate matters.

Dr Francesca Cavallaro of the Health Foundation said: "The government has clearly made progress in reducing waiting times, but on current trends our analysis shows that the NHS would just fall short of meeting the 18-week standard by the end of the parliament. The scale of the challenge remains significant and even getting close to meeting the target would be a considerable achievement. But placing so much emphasis on the 18-week target risks slower progress on other key issues, such as improving access to GPs, which we know is the public's top priority for the NHS."

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said a lot of progress was being made and productivity in the health service was improving. He noted that extra money being invested, coupled with new technology and longer evening and weekend working, would help accelerate progress. He acknowledged strikes had caused problems. "We urge the BMA to work with us, not against us, as we drive down the longest waits and get the NHS back on track."

Tim Mitchell, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: "This analysis otherwise confirms what surgeons see every day - the NHS is still struggling to meet demand, and unless surgical capacity expands, the government will almost certainly fall short of its target."