NHS battles 'super flu' wave as half trusts report worst outbreak on record

LONDON — Half of NHS trusts are contending with what health officials describe as their worst flu outbreak on record, a so-called 'super flu' wave driven by a heavily mutated H3N2 strain and damp winter weather that has strained emergency departments and inpatient wards across the country. NHS data reviewed by the Daily Mail show roughly 70 of 134 trusts reporting flu levels above their normal winter activity, with the national count of flu-related hospitalizations climbing to more than 2,700. Hospitals are reporting increased bed occupancy and delays in care as the wave unfolds, prompting discussions of potential further surges in the weeks ahead.

Across several trusts, the impact has been stark. University Hospitals Birmingham, the country’s hardest-hit system, had 254 beds occupied by flu patients as of December 7, according to NHS SitRep data. In seven NHS trusts, hospitalizations for flu had at least quadrupled in the most recent week. Whittington Health Trust reported that about 10% of its ward beds were filled by flu patients, a share that illustrates the strain on inpatient capacity. Emergency departments across the country are operating near or at capacity, with ambulance diversions reported as hospitals redirect patients to neighboring facilities to manage demand. In the latest week, fifty-seven ambulance arrivals were diverted, the highest figure on record for that metric.

Health officials caution that the current wave differs from prior seasons in part because the mutated H3N2 strain began spreading as early as October, reducing the population’s natural immunity. The UK Health Security Agency has emphasized vaccination as the most effective defense against serious illness, while continuing routine containment measures such as hand hygiene and ventilation. Dr Suzanna McDonald, national lead for the flu programme, urged people to stay home if they are ill and to avoid mixing with those who may be especially vulnerable to infection. "The first thing you should do to limit the spread of infection is stay at home," she said, adding that avoiding large gatherings when symptomatic is important.

London’s NHS medical director, Dr Chris Streather, echoed the sentiment with a cautious approach to social activities during the peak season. "We definitely don’t want to be Scrooge-like about this, but if people have symptoms—sore throat, cough, runny nose—they should avoid large social gatherings," he said, while noting that socializing over Christmas should not be categorically banshee-like but should be weighed against personal health and risk to others. Officials have urged people to seek a flu vaccination and to follow public health guidance to reduce transmission as the wave continues to unfold.

The public health picture remains unsettled. Professor Paul Hunter, a virologist at the University of East Anglia, told the Daily Mail that while this season’s flu activity is down on last winter’s late-December/early-January peak so far, the size of the current peak remains uncertain. "We are still quite a way behind last winter, but both of those [outbreaks] peaked around late December, early January. What matters is the size of the peak; it’s plausible that it peaks this week—but it might continue to rise and we’ll have a colossal peak at the end of January," he warned. He added that the situation is likely to worsen before it improves and cautioned that the exact trajectory remains unclear.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, acknowledged the mounting strain on hospitals and warned that the number of patients in hospital could triple before the outbreak subsides if the trend continues. He has urged doctors to pause next week’s strikes to avoid compounding the pressure on the NHS, arguing that the "double whammy" could trigger a systemic failure of services if the peak arrives while industrial action is ongoing. Streeting cited early indicators that an average of about 2,660 flu patients were occupying hospital beds daily last week, up more than 42% from the same week a year earlier, and cautioned that the peak could worsen before easing.

Officials say the best defense remains vaccination and simple, consistent public health measures. In addition to vaccination campaigns, authorities emphasize regular hand washing, ensuring well-ventilated spaces, and masking where appropriate, especially in high-risk settings. They also stress that vaccination remains available and recommended for eligible groups to reduce the risk of severe illness and hospitalization, even as hospitals work through the current surge. While the duration of the wave is uncertain, the health system is preparing for a protracted period of high demand, with some experts predicting a late-January peak and others noting ongoing transmission that could extend beyond that milestone. As the NHS grapples with this unprecedented tidal wave, officials say the best course is vigilance, vaccination, and adherence to public health guidance to blunt the spread and protect vulnerable patients.