No Rapture on Sept. 23; study links overconfidence to conspiracy beliefs

Thousands of believers woke up on September 24 to find that the predicted Rapture had not occurred. The apocalyptic forecast, promoted by a South African pastor who claimed Jesus would return on September 23, prompted a wave of online posts and personal preparations around the world. As the day ended without incident, observers noted the disappointment and began asking why such predictions spread so widely despite repeated debunking by scientists and scholars. A concurrent set of research findings highlights a broader psychological pattern: people who embrace conspiracy theories tend to be markedly overconfident in their beliefs, a trait that may help explain the appeal of extreme predictions.

Eight studies conducted this year by researchers at Cornell University involved 4,181 participants in the United States who completed cognitive tasks and answered questions about conspiracies, ranging from the moon landing being faked to vaccines being part of a government control plot. To measure overconfidence, participants estimated how well they thought they had performed on tasks and then compared that with their actual results. The team published their analysis in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. Gordon Pennycook, an associate professor at Cornell, described the link between overconfidence and endorsing extreme conspiracies to PsyPost: 'One of the things that seems to distinguish—at least some—conspiracy theorists is not just that their beliefs seem to be based on poor evidence, but also that they appear so confident in their beliefs.' The study also found a striking false consensus effect: while only about 12 percent of participants endorsed conspiracies, those believers tended to think that nine in ten people shared their views.

'Not only are their beliefs on the fringe, but they are very much unaware of how far on the fringe they are,' Pennycook said. 'In fact, our results counteract a prevailing narrative about conspiracy theorists: that they know they hold fringe beliefs and revel in that fact.'

The online reactions to the failed Rapture included dramatic personal actions in some places. In Australia, Tilahun Desalegn posted a clip of his car being towed away, writing: 'Car is gone just like the Brides of Christ will be in September.' The episode underscored how quickly online narratives can translate into lived decisions, even when predictions prove unfounded.

Beyond the Rapture episode, researchers are examining why people gravitate toward conspiracy theories in general. A separate line of inquiry from the University of Kent found strong links between belief in conspiracies and certain psychological traits, including narcissism and low self-esteem. Across three online studies, the Kent team found that those traits correlated with greater conspiracy belief, though causality remained uncertain. The researchers outlined three recurring motives for belief in conspiracies: a need for understanding and certainty; a need for control and security; and a desire to maintain a positive self-image, especially among individuals who feel socially marginalised and who may seek belonging in fringe communities such as UFO circles. These insights suggest that the appeal of conspiratorial claims extends beyond the claims themselves and into how people seek to make sense of the world.

Experts caution that the data do not establish direct cause-and-effect relationships between personality traits and conspiracy beliefs. Nonetheless, the studies help explain why misinformation can spread quickly online and why educators and policymakers emphasize critical thinking and media literacy as tools to counter unfounded claims. The Rapture episode serves as a reminder of the limits of online prophecy and the importance of evaluating evidence before accepting extraordinary claims.