Rapture prediction fails to materialize as study links overconfidence to conspiracy beliefs

Thousands of people around the world woke up yesterday hoping it would be their last day on Earth, a belief tied to a widely shared prediction that the Rapture would force believers to rise into the sky. The forecast, promoted by a South African pastor and circulating across social media, said Jesus would return on September 23. When the moment passed without incident, believers reported disappointment and confusion, underscoring how such theories spread and endure even when they fail to unfold.

In a series of eight studies involving 4,181 participants in the United States, researchers from Cornell University examined why people gravitate toward extreme conspiracy theories and why some are so reluctant to change their minds. Participants completed cognitive tasks and then estimated how well they thought they had performed, a method used to gauge overconfidence. The team then compared those scores with participants’ endorsement of conspiratorial ideas, including claims that the moon landing was faked or that vaccines are part of a government plot. The analysis, published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, found a strong link between overconfidence and belief in conspiracy theories. They also noted a striking false consensus effect: among those who believed conspiracies, only about 12% of participants endorsed such ideas, but those believers thought that nine in 10 people shared their views. The researchers describe this miscalibration as especially pronounced among the most overconfident individuals.

The study’s lead author, Gordon Pennycook, an associate professor at Cornell, suggested that overconfidence in general may push people toward fringe beliefs and make them less receptive to counterevidence. “The tendency to be overconfident in general may increase the chances that someone falls down the rabbit hole, so to speak, and believe conspiracies,” Pennycook said. He added that overconfident conspiracy believers often seem “miscalibrated in a major way,” not only holding fringe beliefs but also underestimating how far they are from the mainstream.

The Rapture episode highlighted how quickly some adherents can detach from ordinary expectations. An Australian man, Tilahun Desalegn, shared a clip of his car being towed, telling followers, “I won’t need her beyond September, because I’m going home to where my father in heaven is.” Desalegn’s experience illustrates the tangible actions some take when they believe a prediction will be fulfilled, even as others prune possessions or reassess plans.

Separately, researchers from the University of Kent reported strong links between conspiracy beliefs and specific psychological traits. Across three online studies, they found that higher narcissism and lower self-esteem were associated with a greater likelihood of endorsing conspiratorial ideas. The researchers cautioned that the data do not establish causation; instead, they point to correlations that may illuminate why some people become entrenched in conspiratorial thinking.

Scholars have long proposed three broad motivations for why people turn to conspiracy theories: the desire for understanding and certainty, the need for control and security, and the drive to maintain a positive self-image. The Kent work aligns with this framework, suggesting that personality traits can influence how people weigh evidence, seek explanations, and interpret social dynamics. Taken together with the Cornell findings, the research paints a nuanced picture of the psychology behind fringe beliefs and why such theories can persist even after failed prophecies.

The convergence of these studies offers a cautionary lens for observers of online discourse. While conspiracy theories can feel compelling for some, the research highlights a common cognitive pattern: individuals who are overconfident in their views may misjudge the broader prevalence of those beliefs and resist corrective information. In the wake of the Rapture’s non-fulfillment, researchers hope to better understand how to communicate evidence and reduce the spread of unverified claims without stigmatizing people who hold them. The work also underscores the ongoing importance of addressing underlying psychological factors, including self-perception and the human urge to find clear explanations in uncertain times.