Achane, Shough draw Week 16 prop bets as value hunt continues

Two NFL Week 16 player-prop bets are drawing interest from bettors seeking value in a tight slate. De’Von Achane of the Miami Dolphins is pegged for a big day against Cincinnati, while Tyler Shough of the New Orleans Saints is projected to log a high number of pass attempts as New Orleans leans on the passing game. The week features 14 games and, for now, the prop market sits roughly break-even on the year at about 0.2 units, according to tracking by The New York Post Betting analysts who cover the niche but active segment of sports wagering.

Achane is listed on the prop board with Over 115.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -111 (DraftKings) and an alternative Over 149.5 at +310 (BetRivers). The move to target Achane comes with a note that quarterback Quinn Ewers is set to start Sunday against the hapless Bengals, which bettors say could unlock a heavy workload for Miami’s versatile back. Cincinnati has been particularly porous to running backs this season, ranking near the bottom in both rushing and receiving yardage allowed to opposing backs. The Bengals yield about 129.21 rushing yards per game and 45.57 receiving yards to backs, numbers that illustrate why Achane is drawing attention despite the Dolphins’ run-heavy offense at times. Achane has shown he can reach or exceed the threshold, crossing 115.5 in four of his past five games, underscoring why some players see upside in the prop when the game script supports a heavy workload. Yet the market also carries risk; a leaner game script or game plan could limit his opportunities, so bettors often size these bets conservatively.

Tyler Shough has been playing well enough that his pass attempts line has attracted attention, with Over 30.5 pass attempts at -105 (Fanatics) and Over 38.5 at +650 (DraftKings) listed on the board. Shough has reached 30.5 attempts in three of his last four starts, suggesting a favorable ceiling if New Orleans falls behind or if the Saints lean into the pass to manufacture offense. The Saints recently lost Devin Neal, which could push Evan Hull into a larger backfield role; that scenario often means more passing attempts to move the chains when the ground game is stressed. Shough’s most recent pass-try marks read 43, 38, 20 (in a rain-soaked Tampa Bay game) and 32, illustrating a floor that supports higher-volume days in certain matchups. The combination of rookie upside and the Saints’ evolving offense keeps Shough’s overs in consideration for bettors looking for a higher-variance play on Week 16.

In a note that adds context for readers new to the market, The New York Post Betting’s Erich Richter highlights that astute prop betting has delivered profitable results in recent seasons. Richter notes a track record of solid returns on long-shot prop plays, with his reported return on investment around 30.15 percent since 2022, underscoring why some bettors chase these kinds of lines rather than traditional salary-cap bets.

As always, prop lines move with late-week injury news and drive-time reporting, so bettors should verify the latest numbers before placing bets. The Week 16 slate features a mix of favorable matchups and volatile game scripts, meaning value can emerge on both sides of the ball if teams deploy game plans that create extended drives or quick-strike scoring opportunities. For Achane, a heavy workload in a favorable matchup paired with a quarterback environment that emphasizes the passing game could yield a productive day, while Shough’s path to a big number hinges on the Saints’ game script and his own growth as a rookie starter. Regardless of which bet you favor, the safest path is disciplined staking and line-checking as Sunday approaches.

Meanwhile, Tyler Shough’s journey with the Saints remains a focal point for Week 16 prop watchers in part because the rookie signal-caller has demonstrated the ability to push for higher-volume attempts when the situation allows. A pass-heavy game plan could skew toward more attempts, and the line’s upside is evident in the recent run of numbers. If Cincinnati’s defense creates pressure that keeps New Orleans in a pass-first mode, Shough’s chances of surpassing 30.5 attempts rise accordingly, aligning with the bet setup that drew attention to this pairing.

The betting terrain for Week 16 is nuanced and dynamic, with models and analysts alike noting that small edges can materialize in the prop market when teams adjust to late-season conditions. Bettors should remain mindful of line shifts, weather factors, and any last-minute injury updates that could tilt the expected volume for Achane or Shough. As the NFL calendar moves toward the postseason, the appeal of prop bets on players with clear usage patterns and favorable matchups remains a persistent draw for sharp bettors and casual fans alike.